Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated series odds, probabilities, and best bets for Friday, May 19th

May 19, 2023 10:52 AM

Read on for updates betting odds, series probabilities, and best bets. Also, check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated series odds, probabilities, and best bets

Updated Series Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Florida Panthers (-165) vs Carolina Hurricanes (+140)
  • Dallas Stars (+110) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-130)

Florida Panthers lead Eastern Conference Final 1-0 after thrilling quadruple overtime win in Game 1

Matthew Tkachuk was the quadruple overtime hero on Thursday in the sixth-longest game in NHL history. The 25-year-old scored in the final seconds of the fourth overtime in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final to give the Panthers a 3-2 victory. It was the seventh straight road victory for the Panthers, who improved to 5-0 in overtime in the playoffs.

The Panthers thought they ended the game just two and a half minutes into the first overtime period when Ryan Lomberg scored, but the goal was waived off due to goaltender interference. Carolina pushed hard after tying the game, and they continued to drive play after being saved by the situation room. The Hurricanes finished with a 59 percent edge in expected goals.

I would argue that Florida played good in all but two periods (the third period and the first overtime) and I wonder how much the goal being disallowed deflated the Panthers. Carolina finished with 52 percent of the shot attempts. The Panthers wouldn’t have picked up the win without ‘Playoff Bob’, though. Frederik Andersen was good for the Hurricanes, but Sergei Bobrovsky saved the Panthers almost five goals above expected according to Evolving Hockey. The veteran goaltender made 63 saves, while Andersen made 57 saves on the other side.

Updated Series Probabilities

Florida Panthers Win Series: 64%

  • 4 Games: 12%
  • 5 Games: 17%
  • 6 Games: 18%
  • 7 Games: 15%

Carolina Hurricanes Win Series: 36%

  • 5 Games: 6%
  • 6 Games: 12.5%
  • 7 Games: 17.5%

Florida cashed as an underdog in Game 1, closing +130 on the moneyline, and that’s where they’re currently priced at heading into Game 2. There’s value on the series moneyline (-165) but I’d rather take the Panthers to win the game instead because the edge is bigger, and +130 odds are more attractive. According to my model, the Panthers have a 46 percent chance to win Game 2, which means I think their odds should be +117.

Bet: Florida Panthers (Game 2 Moneyline) +130

Today’s NHL Odds via VSiN

Dallas Stars (+110) at Vegas Golden Knights (-130)

Game 1 of the Western Conference final goes Friday in Vegas as the Golden Knights and Stars kick off what is sure to be a tough, physical series. Here are my projected moneyline odds:

  • Vegas Golden Knights: 51.9% (-108)
  • Dallas Stars: 48.1% (+108)

The Golden Knights a much bigger favorite when the game opened at sportsbooks around the world, but the Stars took money and now, even in Las Vegas, +110 is the consensus price on the road team. That’s looks to be about five cents better than what you’ll find at retail sportsbooks around the country, though.

I grabbed Dallas to win the series and move onto the Stanley Cup Final at +120, but their series odds are now +110 and my model suggests the value is mostly gone and no value is showing on the Game 2 moneyline.

Check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

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Thom Cunningham: Golden Knights at Stars  - 1P - OVER (1.5). View more picks.


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