Read on for updates betting odds, series probabilities, and best bets. Also, check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated series odds, probabilities, and best bet for Sunday, May 21st
- Florida Panthers (-425) vs Carolina Hurricanes (+330)
- Dallas Stars (+180) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-220)
Panthers take 2-0 series lead back to Florida after another overtime victory
Carolina opened the scoring just two minutes into the game. The Hurricanes dominated the opening 10 minutes of play, owning 85 percent of the shot attempts and almost 95 percent of the expected goals, but things flattened out long enough for the Panthers to tie the game midway through the second period.
After that, Carolina threw everything they could at Sergei Bobrovsky. Prior to Florida’s first goal, the Hurricanes generated 1.79 expected goals but they finished the game with 4.54 (xG) according to Evolving Hockey, and that means ‘Playoff Bob’ has saved the team approximately 8.6 goals above expected in the Eastern Conference final.
Matthew Tkachuk was the overtime hero for the second game in a row, and the third time in the playoffs, which is a big reason why he’s currently listed as the favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, but the Panthers would not be where they are without Bobrovsky’s elite goaltending. Bob has the third-best odds (+550) to win the award.
Updated Series Probabilities
Florida Panthers Win Series: 81%
- 4 Games: 26%
- 5 Games: 23.5%
- 6 Games: 20%
- 7 Games: 11.5%
Carolina Hurricanes Win Series: 19%
The Hurricanes have made it back to the Eastern Conference final three times (2009, 2019, 2023) since winning the Stanley Cup in 2006 and they have yet to win a game (0-10). Carolina was swept by the Bruins in 2019.
As far as Game 3 goes, my model suggests Florida will win the game 51.5 percent of the time, which converts to moneyline odds of -106, so my run of betting the Panthers looks like it’s coming to an end. At least for now.
Today’s NHL Odds via VSiN
Dallas Stars (+105) at Vegas Golden Knights (-125)
Vegas played a great game, particularly at five-on-five, in Game 1, but my hockey betting model projects that the Golden Knights will win Game 2 approximately 54 percent of the time, so consider me neutral on this one:
- Dallas Stars: 46% (+117)
- Vegas Golden Knights: 54% (-117)
I do have a (now -EV) wager on the Stars at +120 to win the series, and I’m hoping they can go back to Dallas with the series tied 1-1, but my model now predicts that Vegas will win the series about 68 percent of the time and that converts to moneyline odds of -212.
Check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.