Read on for updates betting odds, series probabilities, and best bets. Also, check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated series odds, probabilities, and best bet for Saturday, May 20th
- Florida Panthers (-165) vs Carolina Hurricanes (+140)
- Dallas Stars (+180) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-220)
Vegas Golden Knights lead series 1-0 after overtime victory in Game 1
The Golden Knights blew a late lead in Game 1 to send it to overtime, but they were able to score the winning goal just a couple of minutes into extra time. Vegas leads the Western Conference final 1-0 and, by my estimation, they now have a 68 percent chance of winning the series.
In a game where the score was 4-3 and the shots were 37-36, you might think that it was tightly contested, and it was, but Vegas dominated the game during even strength play with a 66 percent edge in expected goals over the Stars according to Evolving Hockey, and high-danger shot attempts were 11-5 in favor of Vegas.
Dallas has shown that they can bounce back, having lost Game 1 in each series so far, but they’ll have to be a lot better at five-on-five. Only three power plays were awarded in Game 1, so the Stars’ perceived edge in special teams didn’t get to play out at all.
Updated Series Probabilities
Vegas Golden Knights Win Series: 68%
- 4 Games: 13%
- 5 Games: 20%
- 6 Games: 18%
- 7 Games: 17%
Dallas Stars Win Series: 32%
- 5 Games: 5.5%
- 6 Games: 12%
- 7 Games: 14.5%
My series bet on Dallas (+120) is off to a poor start, and according to my model, losing Game 1 hurts their chances quite a bit. Originally, my model had Vegas winning the Western Conference final 51 percent of the time, but now it suggests they’ll win 68 percent of the time, which converts to fair odds of -213/+213.
Today’s NHL Odds via VSiN
Florida Panthers (+130) at Carolina Hurricanes (-150)
On Friday, following the Panthers victory in quadruple overtime, I recommended a bet on the Panthers to win Game 2 and take a 2-0 series lead at +130. Those odds are still widely available, and I wouldn’t recommend making any compromises on the price if you’re interested in betting on the underdog. Here’s my projection for Game 2:
- Florida Panthers: 45.6% (+119)
- Carolina Hurricanes: 54.4% (-119)
I was impressed with how the Panthers played in Game 1. There were stretches where the Panthers got caved in, but that’s going to happen when the game goes on for six hours and the Hurricanes had a big edge in power play time, with six opportunities. The game was played tightly at even strength, though, and that’s something a lot of people seem to be glossing over.
All bets tracked via Betstamp.
Check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.