Read on for updates betting odds and series predictions. Also, check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Friday’s episode features guest hockey oddsmaker Jeff Davis from Circa Sports.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated betting odds and series predictions for Sunday, May 7th
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl ensured that the Edmonton Oilers would not go back home down 0-2 in the series and momentum is now on the Oilers’ side after a dominant performance in Game 2.
Updated Series Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Florida Panthers (-320) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (+250)
- Dallas Stars (-210) vs Seattle Kraken (+180)
- New Jersey Devils (+280) vs Carolina Hurricanes (-360)
- Edmonton Oilers (-190) vs Vegas Golden Knights (+160)
Edmonton Oilers tie series with dominant Game 2 victory over Vegas Golden Knights
Edmonton’s special teams ruled Game 2 in Vegas as the Oilers went three for six on the power play and even scored a short-handed goal. Edmonton owned 83 percent of the shots and 85 percent of the expected goals at the end of the first period. The score was 4-0.
The Oilers finished with a 62 percent shot share and a 65 percent edge in expected goals, but most of what Vegas generated came in the third period when the game was out of reach at 5-0. The Golden Knights only attempted 27 shots in the first 40 minutes.
Edmonton didn’t play well in the Game 1, Vegas played their absolute best and the Oilers were still in it thanks to their elite players. In Game 2, the Oilers played great, and it wasn’t close. In other words, even if Vegas plays at their ceiling, the Oilers are almost never out of a game with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in the lineup. But if Edmonton plays at their ceiling, it’s going to be tough for Vegas to keep up. That’s a big reason my model suggested betting on them to win the series at the beginning of the second round.
Here's how thing's stand now, according to my model:
Edmonton Oilers Win Series: 63% (-170)
- 5 Games: 19%
- 6 Games: 22%
- 7 Games: 22%
Vegas Golden Knights Win Series: 37% (+170)
- 5 Games: 8%
- 6 Games: 14%
- 7 Games: 15%
Edmonton’s series odds closed at -150 prior to Game 1, but the Oilers are now priced at -190 thanks to the fact that they have taken home ice advantage away from the Golden Knights. Three of the next five games (if that many are necessary) will be in Edmonton.
The Oilers are back to being a Stanley Cup co-favorite (+350) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Updated NHL Series Probabilities
- Carolina Hurricanes (+115) at New Jersey Devils (-135)
Akira Schmid’s magic has seemingly worn off, at least for now, and it looks like Vitek Vanecek could be back between the pipes after he relieved Schmid in both first two games. It’s hard to say how this will impact the Devils, but Vanecek didn’t seem up to the task in the Rangers series and now that Schmid is getting worked by the Hurricanes, head coach Lindy Ruff is in a tough spot.
Heading into the series, I thought that if I had the choice of betting either team at a good number, my preference would be to bet the New Jersey Devils, not the Carolina Hurricanes. However, my model now sees value on Carolina, who it prices at +around +110 in Game 3.
The Devils are down 0-2 in a series for the second time in the 2023 playoffs after battling back from losing Games 1 and 2 versus New York and there’s a bit of concern on my part that they will really turn it on in Game 3, however, there are some decent, but somewhat obscure, prices available on the road team if you have access to a lot of sportsbooks and are able to shop around. As I mentioned on air last night with Danny Burke and Jared Smith, I'm on the Hurricanes at +120 or better, but I was able to bet them at around +124.
- Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) at Florida Panthers (+110)
It’s Florida or nothing for me as my NHL betting model sees Florida as a +110 underdog in Game 3. The Panthers have been a great home team for a while, and even though they did go 1-2 at home versus the Boston Bruins in the first round, the Maple Leafs and lucked out road wins against the Lightning.
Florida didn’t play great in the last game, but I would be surprised if things were as easy for Toronto this time around. They might score more than two goals, in fact, there’s a good chance they will, but I doubt they will be able to dominate the way they did at home in Game 2. The Florida Panthers are no joke and if their odds get closer to +120 I’ll bet on them to go up 3-0 in the series.
- Dallas Stars (-140) at Seattle Kraken (+120)
After a dominating performance in Game 2, the Dallas Stars are a -140 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook heading into Game 3 in Seattle. In fact, that -140 is the best price in the market according to Betstamp, as most shops have moved to -145 or higher. I am not quite there on the Stars, who I think are priced fairly. In my opinion, neither moneyline side offers value.
There’s a chance that Seattle could get 40-goal scorer Jared McCann back in the lineup at some point in the series, but it’s unlikely he will be ready in time for Game 3. Kraken head coach Dave Hakstol said there is nothing imminent in terms of McCann’s return but the fact that he attended the team’s optional skate is a good sign overall.
Don’t forget to check out Friday’s episode of the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast with hockey oddsmaker Jeff Davis from Circa Sports. We’ll be back with a new episode on Monday.