The Seattle Kraken avoided elimination on Saturday and forced a Game of 7 in Dallas against the Stars. Now, the Oilers look to do the same in Edmonton as they get set to host the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 6 on Sunday. Read on for updates betting odds and series predictions for Sunday, May 14th. Also, check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated betting odds and series probabilities for Sunday, May 14th
- Florida Panthers (-130) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (+110)
- Dallas Stars (-190) vs Seattle Kraken (+160)
- Edmonton Oilers (+170) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-210)
Seattle Kraken force Game 7 with 6-3 win over Dallas Stars
Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger was pulled for the second time in round two after allowing four goals on 18 shots just 24:23 into Game 6. The Kraken would go onto win by a score of 6-3 and now the two teams will meet in Game 7 on Monday.
The Stars are 4-2 at home in the playoffs to date, and they’ve won two out of three home games against Seattle, but my model suggests the Stars will win the series 62.3 percent of the time (-165 odds). DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the Stars listed as a -190, while the Kraken are priced at +160.
Dallas has been the better team through the lens of expected goals, owning a 57 percent share at even strength and 59 percent in all situations, but they haven’t held an edge in shot attempts and Oettinger’s poor play is a big concern heading into Game 7.
According to stats website Evolving Hockey, Oettinger saved the Stars almost 4.5 goals above in the first round against Minnesota, but the 24-year-old has given up more than eight goals above expected in the second round against Seattle. He’s been the Stars’ most valuable player at times, but he’s been far from it in this series and now he only has one game to figure it out.
Maybe he figures it out and all is forgotten, but I wasn’t interested in betting on the Stars going into the series and I’m certainly not going to start now.
Game 7 Projection
- Dallas Stars 62.3%
- Seattle Kraken 37.7%
Updated NHL Series Probabilities
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Check out my Eastern Conference Final Prediction here.
Vegas Golden Knights (+160) at Edmonton Oilers (-190)
Game 5 was the Oilers to win, leading 2-1 more than halfway through, but that all came crashing down in about a minute and a half late in the second period when Vegas scored three goals. The Oilers did get back within one goal early in the third period but couldn’t even the score and lost 4-3.
The Oilers held a 55 percent edge in shot attempts and a 58.5 percent edge in expected goals according to Evolving Hockey, but Adin Hill was solid in goal and Stuart Skinner wasn’t. The Oilers have yet to announce a starting goaltender for Game 6, but assuming Skinner is back in goal, my model estimates they will win the game 62 percent (-163) of the time.
In other words, I’m a lot closer to betting on Vegas, but it probably won’t happen pregame unless things really shift toward the Oilers. I don’t know how a bettor could justify laying such a big price on Edmonton, though. Not after what we’ve seen from them in the last six games. I think they’ll win the game and force a Game 7, but their game is not complete right now and they’ve been too inconsistent.
Game 6 Projection
- Edmonton Oilers 62%
- Vegas Golden Knights 38%
Check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Monday’s episode will feature a couple of hockey handicappers, Michael Leboff and Nick Martin, from the Action Network.