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Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated betting odds and series predictions for Wednesday, May 10th
- Florida Panthers (-1200) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (+700)
- Dallas Stars (-200) vs Seattle Kraken (+165)
- New Jersey Devils (+500) vs Carolina Hurricanes (-750)
- Edmonton Oilers (+120) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-140)
Carolina Hurricanes lead series 3-1 after blowout win in Game 4
New Jersey had a strong start and opened the scoring, but that they wouldn’t light the lamp again. The Hurricanes tied the game in the first period and then put up five goals in the second frame and won the game 6-1. Carolina finished with a 64 percent edge in shot attempts and 69 percent in expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey.
From a betting perspective, Carolina once again closed as a sizeable underdog, which didn’t match up with my projections, and after four games, it’s clear that Carolina is the better team. They have a 57 percent edge in expected goals after four games and they’ve outscored the Devils 21-11, holding them to just one goal in three out of four games.
Updated Series Probabilities
Carolina Hurricanes Win Series: 90% (-900)
- 5 Games: 55%
- 6 Games: 22%
- 7 Games: 13%
New Jersey Devils Win Series: 10% (+900)
The Game 4 moneyline does match up closely with what I have projected, though, so I won’t be betting a side unless there’s a big shift in the odds again.
Dallas Stars tie series (2-2) with 6-3 win over Kraken in Game 4
Dallas has won games in this series by dominating Seattle, not by relying on their goaltender, Jake Oettinger, and had the Stars not been so dominant in the first two periods (Seattle only had 10 shots after 40 minutes) I’m not sure they would’ve have won by such a wide margin. Oettinger is a great goaltender, but he hasn’t been good enough to win games on his own like he has been in the past and it’s tough to dominate a team game after game.
Updated Series Probabilities
Dallas Stars Win Series: 64% (-178)
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6 Games: 22%
- 7 Games: 13%
Seattle Kraken Win Series: 36% (+178)
- 6 Games: 17%
- 7 Games: 19%
Jared McCann made his return to the Kraken lineup in Game 4 but played just 13 minutes of ice time and had three shots on goal. That’s good news for Seattle heading into Game 4, and the moneyline reflects that, as the Kraken are priced at +160. This is a big difference from where they were in the first two games (+190 and +200) and I’m hoping the line trends back in that direction so I can get a piece of Seattle to win that game. I think +160 is a fair price.
Updated NHL Series Probabilities
Toronto Maple Leafs (-120) at Florida Panthers (EVEN)
Toronto is facing elimination, down 0-3 in the series, after losing Game 3 in Florida. The Maple Leafs will put their faith in 24-year-old goaltender Joseph Woll now that starter Ilya Samsonov is injured. Only four times in 201 tries has a team comeback to win a series trailing 3-0 in the playoffs.
The Panthers have a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Final for just the second time in the history of the franchise. My preference is to bet on Florida to win Game 4 but with all the steam Toronto has caught in the last three games, it feels right to wait and see where the line is closer to game time.
There’s a chance that the injury to Samsonov will stop the market from driving up the Maple Leafs’ odds this time around, but stranger things have happened. Florida’s moneyline went as high as +145 at some shops going into Game 3. It won’t get there in Game 4, but it could get a lot better than even money.
Vegas Golden Knights (+155) at Edmonton Oilers (-180)
Edmonton will likely come back with a strong performance, but once again, the game line is too heavily shaded in their favor to bet on them to win Game 4. Edmonton’s moneyline should be closer to -170, according to my model, but that’s if Stuart Skinner starts. Skinner hasn’t been good, but Campbell was stapled to the bench for long stretches this season for good reason.
Note: Adin Hill is expected to start for Vegas.
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