Read on for updates betting odds, news, notes, and series predictions. Also, check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. New episode dropping later today with guest bookmaker Chuck Esposito from Stations.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated betting odds and series predictions for Thursday, May 11th
- Florida Panthers (-425) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (+320)
- Dallas Stars (-200) vs Seattle Kraken (+165)
- New Jersey Devils (+500) vs Carolina Hurricanes (-750)
- Edmonton Oilers (+145) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-170)
Toronto Maple Leafs avoid elimination with 2-1 win in Game 4
There still hasn’t been a sweep in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the Maple Leafs made sure they wouldn’t be the first team to lose four games in a row with their 2-1 win in Game 4. The Panthers played Toronto tough, though, and it’s not going to be easy to beat Florida three times in a row. Joseph Woll played great, stopping almost two goals above expected according to stats website Evolving Hockey, but Sergei Bobrovsky was good again and the games are getting tighter.
DraftKings currently has Florida listed at +155 on the moneyline heading into Game 4. That’s a +EV bet, according to my model, which sees the Panthers as a +138 underdog, but given how the line has moved toward the Maple Leafs in three out of four games so far, waiting for longer odds might be the best course of action if you’re like me and you want to bet the Panthers to win Game 5 in Toronto.
Updated Series Probabilities
Florida Panthers Win Series: 83% (-488)
- 5 Games: 42%
- 6 Games: 29%
- 7 Games: 12%
Toronto Maple Leafs Win Series: 17% (+488)
Florida finished with 51 percent of the shot attempts in Game 4 and although Toronto did hold an edge in expected goals, the margin wasn’t all that wide. Too close for comfort under their current circumstances, that’s for sure.
My model suggests the series will only reach a Game 7 about 71 percent of the time. The Maple Leafs chances of coming back to win the next three games in a row: 17 percent.
Edmonton Oilers tie series 2-2 with 4-1 win in Game 4
Edmonton’s secondary scoring finally showed up in Game 4 and the Oilers’ decisive win was a team effort, from the goaltender out. The Oilers finished the game with a 65 percent edge in expected goals, and a 55 percent shot share. Vegas goaltender Adin Hill didn’t have a good game, while Stuart Skinner played one of his better playoff games to date.
Updated Series Probabilities
Edmonton Oilers Win Series: 61% (-156)
- 6 Games: 34%
- 7 Games: 27%
Vegas Golden Knights Win Series: 39% (+156)
- 6 Games: 17%
- 7 Games: 22%
The Oilers must figure out a way to carry their performance over from one game to the next, which is something they have not been able to do. They’re listed as a -130 favorite heading into Game 5, so the odds are in their favor, but the Oilers are going to need a big effort to beat Vegas two times in a row based on how the Golden Knights have been able to adjust their game after a loss.
Note: Expect some news on Alex Pietrangelo Thursday. The Department of NHL Player Safety is likely going to take a hard look at the play where he gave Oilers’ star Leon Draisaitl a two-handed slash. The puck was long gone, and besides, it wasn’t a hockey play. Pietrangelo received a five-minute major penalty and a game misconduct. Oilers’ captain Connor McDavid, who came to Draisaitl’s aid following the play, said after the game that he would like to see the league suspend Pietrangelo.
Updated NHL Series Probabilities
New Jersey Devils (+110) at Carolina Hurricanes (-130)
Carolina has played three good games out of four in the series and the Devils haven’t had much of an answer outside of an offensive explosion in Game 3 where they scored eight goals. In the other three games, the Hurricanes have held the Devils to one goal. New Jersey generated about 35 shots per game in the regular season, but they’ve only come close to hitting that mark in one game against Carolina.
The game line has moved in Carolina direction from -120 to -130, which makes sense given that the Hurricanes own a 57 percent edge in expected goals in the series and they play well at home. The Devils can win on the road, though, and with their backs against the wall, this might be the most tightly contested game yet.
Seattle Kraken (+160) at Dallas Stars (-190)
As mentioned in Wednesday’s write up, I’m interested in betting on the Kraken, but I’m expecting line movement toward the home team, Dallas. The best price in the market right now is +170, which is where I start to see real value. Shops seem to be moving in that direction, too, and I don’t want to jump the gun in case the line continues to trend in that direction.
Check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast dropping weekdays. Today's episode will feature a conversation with hockey fan and bookmaker Chuck Esposito.