Read on for updates betting odds and series predictions. Also, check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Friday’s episode features guest hockey oddsmaker Jeff Davis from Circa Sports.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated betting odds and series predictions for Saturday, May 6th
Carolina picked up another decisive win over New Jersey in Game 2 on Friday and now lead the best-of-seven series 2-0.
- Florida Panthers (-320) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (+250)
- Dallas Stars (-210) vs Seattle Kraken (+180)
- New Jersey Devils (+280) vs Carolina Hurricanes (-360)
- Edmonton Oilers (+110) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-130)
Carolina Hurricanes take 2-0 series lead as series shifts to New Jersey
New Jersey had more jump to start Game 2 than they did in Game 1, but the Hurricanes started to pour it on going into the second period and the Devils were never able to turn it around. Carolina owned almost 60 percent of the shots and expected goals before New Jersey was able to score their first and only goal of the game around four minutes into the third period.
The Devils might have come to life if Frederik Andersen wasn’t so good in the crease for Carolina, but he was solid, stopping 28 of 29 shots. Only eight high danger shots made to his net all game, though, so the team played good defense in front of him. On the other side, Akira Schmid has struggled to carry over his play from the first round and it has resulted in him being pulled in Game 1 and Game 2, so there’s a decent chance that we will see Vitek Vanecek back in the crease for Game 3.
Updated Series Probabilities
Carolina Hurricanes Win Series: 82% (-456)
- 4 Games: 22.5%
- 5 Games: 26.5%
- 6 Games: 18%
- 7 Games: 15%
New Jersey Devils Win Series: 18% (+456)
- 6 Games: 6.5%
- 7 Games: 11.5%
After dropping the first two games in round one, the Devils looked like they were toast. Of course, they weren’t, but it’s hard to envision them overcoming another 0-2 series deficit. My opinion on the matchup hasn’t changed all that much, the Devils are as bad as they’ve shown they can be, but my math says that betting Carolina to cover the series spread at DraftKings Sportsbook is very +EV.
Carolina is listed at -170 on the series spread line (-1.5 games) and, by my estimation, that prop should be priced closer to -200. I probably wouldn’t be all that enticed to bet it at -188 or -195, which is what I’m seeing at some other popular shops, but it’s an attractive bet at -170 odds. It’s a tough spot for me, though, as it’s not a widely available price and I’m not able to bet the Hurricanes at those odds in my area.
As far as Game 3 goes, my model now suggests a fair price on the Hurricanes is around +110.
Updated NHL Series Probabilities
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- Edmonton Oilers (-125) at Vegas Golden Knights (+105)
Edmonton’s series price has dropped slightly over the last couple of days, moving from +120 to +110 at DraftKings Sportsbook as the Oilers head into Game 2 as a -125 moneyline favorite. The most line movement has taken place in the game total market as bettors are expecting another track meet between these two teams. I’m holding a series bet on the Oilers, but I think the line is mostly right in Game 2 and I’d only be interested in betting the Oilers if the game was closer to a pick ‘em.
Don’t forget to check out Friday’s episode of the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast with hockey oddsmaker Jeff Davis from Circa Sports. We’ll be back with a new episode on Monday.