Stanley Cup Playoffs: Betting odds, series probabilities for Edmonton Oilers vs Vegas Golden Knights

April 30, 2023 10:36 AM
 

Edmonton booked their ticket to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a Game 6 win over the Los Angeles Kings. The Oilers will now face off against the winners of the Pacific Division, the Vegas Golden Knights, who made quick work of the Winnipeg Jets in round one. This is the first time that Edmonton and Vegas will meet in the postseason and DraftKings Sportsbook has already posted several betting markets for the series:

Series Winner Odds

  • Edmonton Oilers -150
  • Vegas Golden Knights +130

Series Spread Odds

Vegas Golden Knights

  • +2.5 Games (-380)
  • -2.5 Games (+475)
  • -1.5 Games (+240)
  • +1.5 Games (-150)

Edmonton Oilers

  • -2.5 Games (+290)
  • +2.5 Games (-700)
  • +1.5 Games (-300)
  • -1.5 Games (+120)

Series Correct Score

Edmonton Oilers

  • 4-0 (+850)
  • 4-1 (+500)
  • 4-2 (+380)
  • 4-3 (+475)

Vegas Golden Knights

  • 4-0 (+1700)
  • 4-1 (+750)
  • 4-2 (+650)
  • 4-3 (+500)

Series Total Games

  • Four Games (+600)
  • Five Games (+270)
  • Six Games (+200)
  • Seven Games (+210)

Matchup

To get a sense of each team's strengths and weaknesses, let's take a closer look at their respective statistics and compare them head-to-head. Here's a tale of the tape for the upcoming series:EDMVGKSTATS_(1)Edmonton grades out as the better team across the board based on regular season stats, and they won the season series 3-1. Of course, it’s a new season, and Vegas wasn’t playing with a full deck earlier in the year. That said, the Oilers’ strength should play well against the Golden Knights’ weakness.

Offense vs Defense

Los Angeles was a good defensive team in the regular season, ranking sixth in shots against per 60 minutes, but that didn’t stop the Oilers, as only the Carolina Hurricanes generated more shots (per 60) than Edmonton did in the first round. Vegas was able to do a good job suppressing shots against an injured Winnipeg team in the latter parts of their first round series, but the Golden Knights did not do a good job of suppressing shots in the regular season and the Oilers are on a totally different level than the Jets. The Vegas defense is going to see a lot more rubber directed toward their net.

Which team has the edge in goal?

Laurent Brossoit has played for three teams in his NHL career: Vegas, Winnipeg, and Edmonton, so it would be something to see the career backup eliminate both of his former clubs. Brossoit’s time with the Oilers ended around the same time the organization drafted Stuart Skinner. Brossoit has more experience, of course, as Skinner is still a rookie, but he has won at different levels in his hockey career, and, so far, he’s shown that he can handle the pressure. Skinner wasn’t as good as Brossoit in the first round, but he had a better regular season than any Vegas goaltender and he passed a tough test in the first round. The 24-year-old is the best goaltender in the series.

Can Vegas match Edmonton’s star power?

Edmonton had three 100-point scorers in the regular season, and although Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is off to a slow start with just four points (no goals) in six games, it’s nearly impossible to contain Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Kings did a fine job of defending McDavid in the first round, but Draisaitl was an absolute beast, leading all players in goals with seven. He looked unstoppable at times and given what he was able to accomplish on a busted ankle last season, it’s scary to think what kind of damage he could do this time around.

Jack Eichel is a great player, but he isn’t even a poor man’s Connor McDavid. Mark Stone and Chandler Stephenson are great, too, but the Golden Knights don’t have a player like Draisaitl in their lineup and I doubt they will be able to contain McDavid to the level that Los Angeles did. The Golden Knights have a solid group of forwards, but when compared side-by-side to the Oilers’ forward group, it’s clear that Edmonton has more talent, and a deeper lineup. Vegas can win the series, but I don’t see it happening if they try to go toe-to-toe with the Oilers top players. The Golden Knights better have a plan to limit McDavid and Draisaitl.

Who will win the series?

A best-of-7 series can result in a range of outcomes, from a clean sweep by one team to a full seven-game series that could go either way, so it’s important to view it that way. Here are my estimated series probabilities:

VGKEDMSeries_(1)

EDMVGKSeriesIt's not going to be easy, but stylistically, the Oilers matchup well with Golden Knights and, by my estimation, Edmonton will advance to the Western Conference final 62 percent of the time. 

Sportsbooks have Edmonton listed as the series favorite, but there’s still value betting the Oilers at -150 or better because 62 percent converts to -163. Of course, always shop around for the best price.

Best Bet

Edmonton Oilers (Series Winner) -150

Series Prediction

Edmonton Oilers in six

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PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Money Line - Panthers (-120) vs Golden Knights. View more picks.

PRO TIPS

Sharp Money: When betting on Grand Slams, look to parlay heavy favorites together in the first round. View more tips.

 

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