Stanley Cup Final: Odds, predictions, best bets for Game 5

June 11, 2023 08:59 AM

Stanley Cup Final: Odds, predictions, best bets for Game 5

The Golden Knights are one win away from winning the first Stanley Cup in franchise history. Their first chance to do it is on Tuesday when they host the Panthers in Vegas for Game 5 of the Final.

Visit the VSiN NHL Odds page to view the entire board.

Biggest Takeaways from Game 4

After fumbling through the first 15 minutes of Game 3, the Golden Knights started Game 4 with a lot of energy, and it paid off as the three goals they scored in the first half of the game proved to be enough to beat the Panthers. Both goaltenders were good, but neither was great for the full 60 minutes and the game was a lot more interesting in the third period than it should have been. Hill needed to steal some games for Vegas to be a real threat to win the Conn Smythe Trophy and he hasn’t done that in the Final. Jonathan Marchessault is listed as a -500 favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chandler Stephenson (+330) scored the opening goal just 99 seconds into the game and added another in the second period. Stephenson had another good shooting night with three shots on goal. He’s got 12 shots in four games against Florida, and he’s registered at least three shots in each of his last three games. He played four fewer minutes in Game 4 than he did in the two prior games, though, because the Panthers only gave the Golden Knights one power play opportunity. Speaking of power play opportunities, each team only had one in Game 4 after combining for 29 in the first three games.

Matthew Tkachuk was pulled by concussion spotters in Game 3, but it now looks like there is more to the story than the team disclosed. Tkachuk seems to be battling a shoulder injury of some sorts, and the broadcast picked on it in Game 4. This is, of course, a huge problem for the Panthers. If Tkachuk can’t play up to his full potential, I don’t like the Panthers chances of winning one game, let alone three in a row.

Updated Series Projections

Series Winner

Vegas Golden Knights: 93% (-1329)

Florida Panthers: 7% (+1329)

Correct Series Score

VGK 4-1: 60% (-150)

VGK 4-2: 22% (+355)

VGK 4-3: 11% (+809)

FLA 4-3: 7% (+1329)


Series Total Games

5 Games: 60% (-150)

6 Games: 22% (+355)

7 Games: 18% (+456)

Stanley Cup Final Game 4 Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Florida Panthers (+135) at Vegas Golden Knights (-155)

Vegas owned 59 percent of the expected goals in Game 3 and 67 percent in Game 4, so they’ve done their best to put the Panthers away. I expect the Golden Knights’ killer instinct to be on display in Game 5, too, as they have a once in a lifetime chance to win the Stanley Cup at home in front of their fans.

My hockey betting model suggest Vegas will win Game 5 approximately 60 percent of the time, which lines up closely with the betting market right now, which is why I wanted to be holding a ticket on Vegas at -130 to win the series. There are currently no player props for Game 5 but check back Monday for a write up related to those markets.

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