Stanley Cup Final Game 3: Odds, predictions, and best bets for Thursday, June 8th

June 6, 2023 10:12 AM

Bobrovsky pulled after allowing four goals in under 30 minutes of action.

‘Playoff’ Bob didn’t show up for Game 2, but Adin Hill and the Vegas Golden Knights offense did. Vegas scored four goals before the midway point of the game and added three more in the third period to secure a 7-2 win and a 2-0 series lead. The Golden Knights have been lighting up every goaltender they’ve faced in the playoffs, and so far, they’ve scored eight goals on Bobrovsky in four and a half periods. Florida held a decent edge in expected goals in Game 2, but most of their best looks came in the latter half of the game when they were trailing by a few goals and that’s not worth as much.

Check out my favorite player prop bets for Game 3 here.

Eichel returns with assist after receiving crushing hit by Tkachuk.

Jack Eichel looks to be alright after being on the receiving end of a devastating hit from Panthers’ forward Matthew Tkachuk. That’s been Florida’s gameplan from the start, as they’ve thrown more hits than the Golden Knights, but with an extra day off between games for travel, Vegas should be able to heal some of their bumps and bruises. Panthers’ defenseman Radko Gudas was not so lucky, as he did not return after a big reverse hit from Vegas forward Ivan Barbashev.

Updated Stanley Cup Final Projections

Series Winner

Vegas Golden Knights: 85% (-567)

Florida Panthers: 15% (+567)

Correct Series Score

VGK 4 Games: 26% (+285)

VGK 5 Games: 28% (+257)

VGK 6 Games: 19% (+426)

VGK 7 Games: 12% (+733)

FLA 6 Games: 5% (+1900)

FLA 7 Games: 10% (+900)

Total Games

4 Games: 26% (+285)

5 Games: 28% (+257)

6 Games: 24% (+317)

7 Games: 22% (+355)

Stanley Cup Final Game 3: Odds, predictions, and best bets for Thursday, June 8th

Vegas Golden Knights (+105) at Florida Panthers (-125)

The Stanley Cup Final now shifts to Sunrise and, according to VSiN’s NHL Odds Page, Florida is a -125 favorite to win Game 3. The Golden Knights are listed at +105 on the other side.

Visit the VSiN NHL Odds Page to see the entire board.

Game 3 Prediction

Mark Stone was the only skater to register three shots out of the three players I bet on to go over 2.5 shots on goal in Game 2, and while I may be back with some player props, I'm focused on the side right now because for the first time in the series, my projected odds for a game aren’t lining up with what the betting market has. According to my model, Vegas will win Game 3 approximately 51 percent of the time, and +105 odds suggest that they will win just 48.8 percent of the time so there is some value betting on Vegas here.

Best Bet

Vegas Golden Knights (Game 3 Moneyline) +105

The Golden Knights have led for almost 75 out of 120 minutes played against the Panthers so far in the Stanley Cup Final, and their underlying metrics don’t look strong since they’ve spent so much time holding a lead and playing defense. Vegas is a more complete hockey team, though, and their depth should continue to be a big factor going forward. The Golden Knights have gotten goals from nine different skaters so far in the Stanley Cup Final and even if some of those shooters go cold, Eichel, Karlsson, Barbashev, Stephenson, and Carrier, who have not scored yet in the series, can get hot.

Of course, the Golden Knights are going to need another big performance from Adin Hill, who has saved more than three goals above expected in the Final. I’m not worried about, Hill, though. Vegas has scored four or more goals in 13 out of 19 games this postseason, so the Panthers are dealing with a different animal, having only generated four-plus goals in six out of 18 games in the playoffs. Florida’s offensive ceiling is higher than that, but they haven’t been able to reach it and it’s a lot tougher to get there with a team like Vegas breathing down their neck. I’m expecting a close game, but as mentioned, my model sees Vegas winning 51 percent of the time.

All bets tracked via Betstamp.

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