NHL Series Betting: Updates series probabilities for Wednesday, April 19th

April 19, 2023 09:15 AM

Check out VSiN’s NHL Playoffs Hub each day for updated analysis and series predictions throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs:

Series Updates for Wednesday, April 19th

The 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs are off to a wild start as Boston and Carolina are the only teams that have held onto home-ice advantage after road dogs went 6-2 on Monday and Tuesday.

New York Rangers lead series 1-0

By the time the New Jersey Devils got their legs under them, they were trailing by two goals, and they were down by three before they really showed any push back. New Jersey did control the play at five-on-five, as expected, but they went 0-4 on the power play and didn’t score a goal until Jack Hughes lit the lamp on a penalty shot with about three minutes remaining in the game. New York’s power play did not miss, going two for three.

It wasn’t the type of performance you want to see from a series favorite, but this was projected to be a long series and anybody that’s watched playoff hockey knows that one lopsided loss does not mean the Devils are done, but it does mean they will now lose the series more often than they win it.

Updated Series Probabilities:

New York Wins Series: 64%

  • Rangers Win 4-0: 12%
  • Rangers Win 4-1: 17%
  • Rangers Win 4-2: 20%
  • Rangers Win 4-3: 15%

New Jersey Wins Series: 38%

  • Devils Win 4-1: 6.5%
  • Devils Win 4-2: 13%
  • Devils Win 4-3: 16.5%

The Devils are once again a small favorite (-130) against the Rangers (+110) heading into Game 2 on Thursday, but I won’t be backing them on the moneyline, and I’m not going to add to the small position I took on them to win the series before it started.

Tampa Bay Lightning lead series 1-0

After an embarrassing loss in Game 1, I estimate that Toronto’s odds of winning the series have gone from 59 percent to 42 percent, but my view on how long the series will go hasn’t really changed. I still think this series is going to go six or seven games more often than four or five, especially if the Lightning’s blue line isn’t fully intact.

Victor Hedman left Game 1 with an injury and did not return, as did Erik Cernak, so Tampa Bay could be without their best defenseman and Cernak, who has been a staple on the backend. Forward Mikey Eyssimont also left the game with an injury. All this could change my series handicap, but assuming Hedman is back for Game 2, this is how I see it playing out:

Updated Series Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Wins Series: 58%

  • Lightning Win 4-0: 10%
  • Lightning Win 4-1: 14.5%
  • Lightning Win 4-2: 19%
  • Lightning Win 4-3: 14.5%

Toronto Wins Series: 42%

  • Maple Leafs Win 4-1: 9%
  • Maple Leafs Win 4-2: 14%
  • Maple Leafs Win 4-3: 19%

Winnipeg Jets lead series 1-0

The Jets played about as complete of a game as a team can play in the Stanley Cup Playoffs on Tuesday. Vegas had no answer. The Jets dominated the game from start to finish, owning 60-plus percent of the shot attempts and 70-plus percent of the expected goals. The fact that they did it with a lead is even more impressive. The Golden Knights looked totally outmatched.

Winnipeg showed us that the gap between the two teams probably is a lot smaller than it was originally thought to be and they might even be the better team. I mean, they certainly were the better team in Game 1. The Jets defense was on point, and so was Connor Hellebuyck, the few times that he had to be. I’ve got the Jets to win the series, and I’m going to be backing them until they give me a real reason not to.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Winnipeg Wins Series: 66%

  • Jets Win 4-0: 13%
  • Jets Win 4-1: 17%
  • Jets Win 4-2: 20%
  • Jets Win 4-3: 16%

Vegas Wins Series: 34%

  • Golden Knights Win 4-1: 6%
  • Golden Knights Win 4-2: 12%
  • Golden Knights Win 4-3: 16%

Winnipeg is priced at +130 heading into Game 2. I’m not a zig-zag theorist. The Jets are probably the better team, from the goaltender out, but they aren’t being priced like it.

Bet: Winnipeg Jets (Game 2 Moneyline) +130

Seattle Kraken lead series 1-0

Seattle pulled off the biggest upset of the playoffs so far when they took Game 1 in Colorado by a score of 3-1. The Kraken now lead the best-of-seven series 1-0 but, by my estimation, the Avalanche are still the series favorite.

Colorado Wins Series: 56%

  • Avalanche Win 4-1: 13.5%
  • Avalanche Win 4-2: 22%
  • Avalanche Win 4-3: 20.5%

Seattle Wins Series: 44%

  • Kraken Win 4-0: 6.5%
  • Kraken Win 4-1: 10%
  • Kraken Win 4-2: 13%
  • Kraken Win 4-3: 14.5%

Seattle controlled the game, for the most part, and while things could have turned out differently had some bounces gone Colorado’s way, it wasn’t the type of game you want to see if you’re backing a big favorite. This isn’t the same team that won the Stanley Cup, that’s clear, but I’m not ready to count them out. The Kraken have changed the tone of the series, though.

Wednesday’s NHL Odds

Wednesday’s NHL schedule features four more great matchups. Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board and check out Tuesday’s update for the latest on the following matchups:

  • New York Islanders (+145) at Carolina Hurricanes (-170)
  • Florida Panthers (+205) at Boston Bruins (-245)
  • Minnesota Wild (+130) at Dallas Stars (-150)
  • Los Angeles Kings (+185) at Edmonton Oilers (-215)

Listen to the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday-Friday wherever you get your podcasts.

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