NHL Series Betting: Updates series probabilities for Tuesday, April 18th

April 18, 2023 01:37 AM

Night one of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs is in the books, and it had a little bit of everything, including two comebacks that ended in overtime upsets. Check in with VSiN daily to get the latest updates on each series from a betting perspective.

Boston Bruins lead series 1-0

Florida held a sizeable edge in shots throughout the first two periods, but the Bruins created quality scoring chances throughout the game and controlled the play in the third period. Boston was able to beat Alex Lyon three times and they would’ve scored more if not for the fact that Lyon made several big saves. The Bruins seemed to be playing in low gear for long stretches, which must be discouraging for the Panthers given that they played a good game overall.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Boston Wins Series: 86%

Bruins Win 4-0: 24%

Bruins Win 4-1: 30%

Bruins Win 4-2: 18%

Bruins Win 4-3: 14%

Florida Wins Series: 14%

Panthers Win 4-1: 2%

Panthers Win 4-2: 5%

Panthers Win 4-3: 7%

Game 2 goes Wednesday in Boston. It’s unclear if forward Patrice Bergeron will be back in the Bruins’ lineup. The captain missed Game 1 due to illness and injury. DraftKings Sportsbook has posted Game 2 odds and the Bruins are currently -245 on the moneyline after closing -215 heading into Game 1. Boston is now priced at -600 to win the series.

Carolina Hurricanes lead series 1-0

The Hurricanes started strong, and the Islanders helped them stay in the driver’s seat by surrendering two goals and on four Carolina power plays while going 0-4 with the man advantage themselves. New York looked slow, as expected, and while their top players did create quality chances on the power play, they weren’t good enough at even strength.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Carolina Wins Series: 76%

Hurricanes Win 4-0: 16%

Hurricanes Win 4-1: 24%

Hurricanes Win 4-2: 20%

Hurricanes Win 4-3: 16%

New York Wins Series: 24%

Islanders Win 4-1: 4%

Islanders Win 4-2: 8%

Islanders Win 4-3: 12%

Los Angeles Kings lead series 1-0

My handicap on the Oilers was that they would start strong after losing Game 1 in each round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs and they did. Unfortunately, they didn’t finish strong. Edmonton twice blew a two-goal lead and ended up losing in overtime 4-3. Of course, the Oilers battled back to win two of those series and they’re certainly not out of it. Edmonton owned roughly 58 percent of the expected goals and shot attempts in Game 1 according to Evovling Hockey.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Edmonton Wins Series: 51%

Oilers Win 4-1: 12%

Oilers Win 4-2: 18%

Oilers Win 4-3: 21%

Los Angeles Wins Series: 49%

Kings Win 4-0: 7%

Kings Win 4-1: 13%

Kings Win 4-2: 16%

Kings Win 4-3: 13%

Edmonton closed -200 at DraftKings Sportsbook in Game 1 and they are priced a little higher (-215) heading into Game 2.

Minnesota Wild lead series 1-0

This game went to double overtime thanks to unbelievable goaltending at both ends of the ice. Jake Oettinger and Filip Gustavsson put on a show on Monday making 50 and 46 saves a piece, but it was the Minnesota Wild who ultimately prevailed on a goal from Ryan Hartman. Dallas seemed to control the game, especially late and in overtime, but through the lens of expected goals, the Wild certainly held their own. The Wild owned 65 percent of the expected goals at the end of regulation.

Minnesota Wins Series: 61%

Wild Win 4-0: 11%

Wild Win 4-1: 16%

Wild Win 4-2: 19%

Wild Win 4-3: 15%

Dallas Wins Series: 39%

Stars Win 4-1: 7.5%

Stars Win 4-2: 13.5%

Stars Win 4-3: 18%

Joel Eriksson Ek was not available for Minnesota in Game 1, and heading into Game 2, both teams will have injuries. Stars’ forward Joe Pavelski had to be helped off the ice after a devastating hit from Wild defenseman Matt Dumba in what was an extremely physical game. Dallas is far from out of it, but my model now predicts their chances have gone from 56 percent to 39 percent and DraftKings Sportsbook agrees: Minnesota (-160) is now the series favorite.

Tuesday’s NHL Odds

Tuesday’s NHL schedule features four more great matchups. Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board.

  • New York Rangers (+110) at New Jersey Devils (-130)
  • Tampa Bay Lightning (+135) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-155)
  • Winnipeg Jets (+130) at Vegas Golden Knights (-150)
  • Seattle Kraken (+165) at Colorado Avalanche (-195)

You can find series probabilities, best bets and more at VSiN’s NHL Hub.

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