NHL Series Betting: Updates series probabilities for Thursday, April 20th

April 20, 2023 08:45 PM

Check out VSiN’s NHL Playoffs Hub each day for updated analysis and series predictions throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs:

Series Updates for Thursday, April 20th

Florida Panthers tie series 1-1

The Bruins sat back in Game 1, and it paid off. In Game 2, the Bruins came out looking to push the pace, but Panthers’ goaltender Alex Lyon kept the game scoreless until his team was able to break the tie early in the second period. After that, despite tying the game a couple of times, the Bruins never seemed to get their mojo back and the Panthers completely took over in the third period.

Do I still think the Bruins will win the series? Yes. Boston is still the better team, and one ugly loss doesn’t change that. The loss of Patrice Bergeron is being felt, though, and that wasn’t something I factored in when I made my original prediction. Florida’s share of expected goals was close to 70 percent in the game because the Bruins aren’t getting nearly enough clean looks from the slot area and are making Lyon look a lot better than he is.

Bergeron has been skating on his own but it’s unclear how close he is to returning to the lineup. Boston’s Game 3 moneyline price ranges from -146 to -163 so shop around if you want to bet on the Bruins. Without Bergeron, I think Boston should be priced around -150 in Florida, so whether there’s value depends on his status.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Boston Bruins Win Series: 70%

  • Bruins Win 4-1: 21%
  • Bruins Win 4-2: 26%
  • Bruins Win 4-3: 23%

Florida Panthers Win Series: 30%

  • Panthers Win 4-1: 6%
  • Panthers Win 4-2: 13%
  • Panthers Win 4-3: 11%

Carolina Hurricanes lead series 2-0

I was worried that the Islanders wouldn’t be able to survive what I thought would be another early onslaught by the Hurricanes, and it didn’t take long for them to fall behind. Carolina went up 2-0 on an own goal by New York, and that seemed like it would be all the insurance they needed given how little the Islanders were generating at the time, but the road team battled back to earn their first lead of the series (3-2). Unfortunately for the Islanders, they couldn’t hold on and lost the game early in the first overtime period.

Even without a model, I think it would be tough to want to bet on Carolina given how they’ve struggled to score, and betting on the Islanders pregame just doesn’t seem like worth it when you consider how they’ve started each game in the series so far.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Carolina Hurricanes Win Series: 87%

  • Hurricanes Win 4-0: 10%
  • Hurricanes Win 4-1: 14.5%
  • Hurricanes Win 4-2: 19%
  • Hurricanes Win 4-3: 14.5%

New York Islanders Win Series: 13%

  • Islanders Win 4-2: 4%
  • Islanders Win 4-3: 9%

Dallas Stars lead series 1-0

Filip Gustavsson made 50 saves in Monday’s double-overtime win over the Dallas Stars to give the Wild a 1-0 series lead but head coach Dean Evason chose to start Marc-Andre Fleury in Game 2 instead. Nobody understood the decision, and it worked out well for the Stars.

I don’t think Fleury is a bad goaltender, but the Wild had an edge with Gustavsson in goal and they probably don’t get blown out if he plays. The decision is even more confusing when you consider that the Wild were missing Joel Eriksson Ek and Ryan Hartman, two of their best forwards, too. The Stars are the better team, and they showed it in Game 2, but a bonehead coaching decision made the situation worse.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Dallas Stars Win Series: 58%

  • Stars Win 4-1: 15%
  • Stars Win 4-2: 21%
  • Stars Win 4-3: 22%

Minnesota Wild Win Series: 42%

  • Wild Win 4-1: 10%
  • Wild Win 4-2: 16%
  • Wild Win 4-3: 16%

Stars forward Joe Pavelski, who is in concussion protocol, missed Game 2.

Edmonton Oilers tie series 1-1

Once again, Edmonton dominated the first period and jumped out to an early 2-0 lead and blew it, but this time they were able to recover in the third period and won the game 4-2. The Kings had just three shots in the opening frame but played a solid game the rest of the way and although he’s had his chances, Los Angeles has held Connor McDavid to just one assist in the series so far.

Edmonton Oilers Win Series: 65%

  • Oilers Win 4-1: 19%
  • Oilers Win 4-2: 24%
  • Oilers Win 4-3: 22%

Los Angeles Kings Win Series: 35%

  • Kings Win 4-1: 8%
  • Kings Win 4-2: 13%
  • Kings Win 4-3: 14%

Edmonton has owned 60 percent of the expected goals and shots in the series so far, but the Kings have done a good job not taking penalties. This series could be 2-0 if the Kings' power play didn't go 0-4 in Game 2. The Oilers are controlling the game, but they can't keep giving Los Angeles openings to get back in the games.

Thursday’s NHL Odds

Thursday’s NHL schedule features four more great matchups. Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board.

  • New York Rangers (+110) at New Jersey Devils (-130)
  • Tampa Bay Lightning (+145) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-170)
  • Winnipeg Jets (+135) at Vegas Golden Knights (-155)
  • Seattle Kraken (+185) at Colorado Avalanche (-215)

Listen to the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday-Friday wherever you get your podcasts.


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