NHL Series Betting: Updated series probabilities for Saturday, April 22nd

April 22, 2023 09:32 AM

Check out VSiN’s NHL Playoffs Hub each day for updated analysis and series predictions throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs:

Series Updates for Saturday, April 22nd

Boston Bruins lead series 2-1

The whole reason the Bruins got the band back together was to try and get Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci one more Stanley Cup before they ride off into the sunset. However, Bergeron hasn’t played a game in the series, and Krejci also was out on Friday. This makes Boston’s Game 3 extra impressive. The Bruins dominated the contest and didn’t give Florida anything until the game was virtually out of reach for them. Boston finished the game with 60 percent of the expected goals and shot attempts.

It sounds like Bergeron will miss at least one more game, but head coach Jim Montgomery suggests he’s likely for Game 5. The Panthers, meanwhile, could be without top defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who took himself out of the game when he tried to hit Charlie McAvoy on the rush. Ekblad took the brunt of the contact. There might be a goaltending controversy brewing, too, as Alex Lyon was pulled after allowing three goals. It’s unknown whether it will be Lyon, who was arguably the Panthers’ MVP down the stretch, or Sergei Bobrovsky, who will start Game 4.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Boston Bruins Win Series: 86%

  • Bruins Win 4-1: 40%
  • Bruins Win 4-2: 28%
  • Bruins Win 4-3: 18%

Florida Panthers Win Series: 14%

  • Panthers Win 4-2: 5%
  • Panthers Win 4-3: 9%

If you backed the Bruins to cover the series spread (-1.5) you’ll be happy to know that Boston now has a 68 percent chance of getting it done in six games or fewer so the fair odds of that happening are -212.

Carolina Hurricanes lead series 2-1

There wasn’t a whole lot going on in Game 3, the first playoff game at the UBS Arena, but things popped off in the third period. The Islanders and Hurricanes stayed scoreless until the second period, when each team scored in the span of about four minutes, but the Islanders went ahead with under four minutes remaining in regulation. Then the unthinkable happened, at least for under bettors, as New York scored three more goals to win 5-1. The total was set at 5.5, and the under closed at around -165.

This was another tightly contested game, though, and that’s what bettors should expect from these two teams. However, with Teuvo Teravainen now with a hand injury, this Hurricanes team is much different than the one they put together with hopes of winning a Stanley Cup. The Hurricanes are already missing Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty, two of their best scorers, and now they’re missing another key offensive player. The Islanders’ chances have improved, but winning three out of the next four games is going to be tough, and I think the fair odds of that happening are somewhere around +285. Not great.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Carolina Hurricanes Win Series: 74%

  • Hurricanes Win 4-1: 29%
  • Hurricanes Win 4-2: 28%
  • Hurricanes Win 4-3: 17%

New York Islanders Win Series: 26%

  • Islanders Win 4-2: 9%
  • Islanders Win 4-3: 17%

Teravainen had his left hand broken by a slash in the third period of Game 2. The injury requires surgery and Teravainen will now miss the rest of the first round.

Minnesota Wild lead series 2-1

Not only did Filip Gustavsson return to Minnesota’s crease after sitting out the Game 2 loss to the Stars, but Ryan Hartman and Joel Eriksson Ek also made their way back to the Wild’s lineup for Game 3. Now, the Wild lead the series after a decisive 5-1 win and the tone of the series has certainly changed. Minnesota can hold their own against Dallas, and the Stars apparent edge in shooting talent hasn’t factored in as much as people thought it would.

The Wild closed -105 on the moneyline in Game 3 at DraftKings Sportsbook, but after the lineup changes (Gustavsson, Hartman, and Eriksson Ek all returned as mentioned) the Wild are priced at -120 heading into Game 4. They’re also listed at -200 to win the series, but the vig-free odds line up with what I think their true chances are.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Minnesota Wild Win Series: 65%

  • Wild Win 4-1: 23%
  • Wild Win 4-2: 25%
  • Wild Win 4-3: 17%

Dallas Stars Win Series: 35%

  • Stars Win 4-2: 13.5%
  • Stars Win 4-3: 21.5%

Los Angeles Kings lead series 2-1

After a controversial ending to overtime in Game 3, the Los Angeles Kings skated away with a 3-2 victory and the Oilers are once again left wondering what went wrong. Fans will tell you it’s been the officiating, and they might have a point as the Kings have had 15 power play opportunities in three games and the Oilers, who have been carrying the play for the entire series, have only had eight.

My gut says Edmonton will still find a way to win this series because the Kings are relying on their goaltender, Joonas Korpisalo, and the Oilers have dominated the series through the lens of shots and scoring chances. However, the math says otherwise, as the Kings are now must win just two out of the next four games.

Los Angeles Kings Win Series: 55%

  • Kings Win 4-1: 17%
  • Kings Win 4-2: 22%
  • Kings Win 4-3: 16%

Edmonton Oilers Win Series: 45%

  • Oilers Win 4-2: 19%
  • Oilers Win 4-3: 26%

The Kings will have better odds of winning games if forward Kevin Fiala, arguably their most important offensive player, returns to the lineup before the end of the first round, but he hasn’t played since March 1st.

Saturday’s NHL Odds

Saturday’s NHL schedule kicks off at 1:00 p.m. PST with a pivotal Game 3 between the Jets and Golden Knights. As mentioned in Friday’s update, and on the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast, my best bet is the Winnipeg Jets to win and take a 2-1 series lead. Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board.

  • Vegas Golden Knights (-110) at Winnipeg Jets (-110)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs (-115) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-105)
  • New Jersey Devils (+120) at New York Rangers (-140)
  • Colorado Avalanche (-155) at Seattle Kraken (+135)

Listen to the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday-Friday wherever you get your podcasts.

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