NHL Series Betting: Updated series probabilities for Friday, April 28th

April 28, 2023 09:25 AM

Check out VSiN’s NHL Playoffs Hub each day for updated analysis and series predictions throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs and listen to the latest episode of VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast wherever you get your podcasts. There will be a new episode dropping later today with guest handicapper Neil Parker from SBR Review.

Series Updates for Friday, April 28th

Vegas Golden Knights advance to the second round of Stanley Cup Playoffs

Vegas jumped out to an early lead in Game 5 and didn’t look back, making it 4-0 before the Jets finally scored a goal in the third period. Winnipeg’s ability to push back in the series was hampered by injuries to two of their best players, and their lack of depth was exposed.

The Golden Knights now await the winner of the series between Los Angeles and Edmonton. Vegas won the Pacific Division so they will have home ice advantage. However, if the Golden Knights play Edmonton, they’ll still be an underdog.

Early series predictions:

  • Edmonton vs Vegas: Oilers win (61 percent chance)
  • Los Angeles vs Vegas: Golden Knights win (52 percent chance)


Toronto Maple Leafs lead series 3-2

Toronto opened the scoring in Game 5, but before the goal was announced in the arena, Tampa Bay had tied the game and they went on to win 4-2. The Maple Leafs were outplayed again, as the Lightning controlled the play for most of the game, finishing with roughly 60 percent of the shots and expected goals, but unlike the last two games, they were not able to mount a comeback.

The Maple Leafs are now 0-10 in games where they have a chance to eliminate their opponent from the playoffs since 2018.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs Win Series: 78%

  • Maple Leafs Win 4-2: 49%
  • Maple Leafs Win 4-3: 29%


Tampa Bay Lightning Win Series: 22%

  • Lightning Win 4-3: 22%


Toronto will get another chance to close out the series in Tampa Bay on Saturday, but Game 6 is a coin flip according to my model, and the betting market, which means there’s a decent chance that we see a Game 7 even if you don’t believe that the Maple Leafs are cursed.

New Jersey Devils lead series 3-2

Forward Ondrej Palat pounced on a rebound in the first minute of Game 5 to put the Devils up 1-0 and then Akira Schmid did his job to perfection. The Devils played a great game, owning 57 percent of the shots and 69 percent of the expected goals, but Schmid is the story here as he’s stopped 82 of 84 shots faced in three games for a .976 save percentage.

Updated Series Probabilities:

New Jersey Devils Wins Series: 77%

  • Devils Win 4-2: 49%
  • Devils Win 4-3: 28%


New York Rangers Wins Series: 23%

  • Rangers Win 4-3: 23%


It’s incredible that the Rangers have scored just two goals in three games against a rookie goaltender given all the star power that they have and it’s starting to look bad. Artemi Panarin hasn’t registered a point since Game 1, and he doesn’t have a goal in the series. Same goes for Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox, and Alexis Lafrenière. Patrick Kane has just one goal in five games, and he was moved to the third line after another rough outing on Thursday. It doesn’t look good for New York, as their odds of winning Game 6 are around 51 percent.

Updated series probabilities

Eastern Conference


Western Conference


Today’s NHL odds

Four teams are facing elimination on Friday. Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board.

  • Carolina Hurricanes (EVEN) at New York Islanders (-120)
  • Boston Bruins (-175) at Florida Panthers (+150)
  • Dallas Stars (-105) at Minnesota Wild (-115)
  • Colorado Avalanche (-155) at Seattle Kraken (+135)


Today’s Best NHL Bet

Seattle Kraken (Moneyline) +135

As mentioned on Thursday’s episode of the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast, my model sees value in betting the Kraken to win Game 6 at +135. I’ll discuss this bet and more on the podcast today with Danny Burke and guest handicapper Neil Parker from SBR Review.

All bets tracked via third party app Betstamp

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