NHL Series Betting: Updated series probabilities and best bets for Wednesday, April 26th

April 26, 2023 09:38 AM

Check out VSiN’s NHL Playoffs Hub each day for updated analysis and series predictions throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Check out the latest episodes of VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast wherever you get your podcasts including a great episode with The Athletics’ Dom Luszcyszyn on Tuesday, and be on the lookout for Wednesday’s episode which will feature a conversation with Michael Leboff of the Action Network.

Series Updates for Wednesday, April 26th

Carolina Hurricanes lead series 3-2

The Hurricanes just need to win one more game to eliminate the Islanders, but it’s concerning that they’ve let New York gain momentum. The odds of are against the Islanders, both mathematically and historically, but they have a slightly better chance of winning Game 6 than Carolina does and that means there’s a decent chance we will see this series go the distance.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Carolina Hurricanes Win Series: 77%

  • Hurricanes Win 4-2: 49%
  • Hurricanes Win 4-3: 28%


New York Islanders Win Series: 23%

  • Islanders Win 4-3: 23%


Carolina spent most of the game trailing, and with the Islanders sitting on their lead, they pushed hard, controlling roughly 60 percent of expected goals, and shot attempts. Sorokin saved the Islanders approximately two goals above expected and he was the reason they won Game 5.

Neither team’s offense has been consistently good in the series, but with Ilya Sorokin in goal, it’s not unreasonable to think that the Islanders could pull of this upset. However, 23 percent coverts to odds of +335, which are roughly the same odds offered currently being offered at DraftKings Sportsbook and I’d only be interested in betting on the comeback if the odds were closer to 4/1.

Dallas Stars lead series 3-2

Minnesota took a couple of bonehead penalties, including a five-minute major that led to Marcus Foligno’s ejection from the game, and trailed by two goals in the first 10 minutes. The Stars scored their third goal early in the second period and the Wild couldn’t get back in the game, losing by a score of 4-0.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Dallas Stars Win Series: 76%

  • Stars Win 4-2: 48%
  • Stars Win 4-3: 28%


Minnesota Wild Win Series: 24%

  • Wild Win 4-3: 24%


You’re not going to beat Jake Oettinger and the Stars if you give them a 3-0 lead and that made watching this game an agonizing experience. I bet on the Wild to win, and immediately regretted it.

Dallas owned 70 percent of expected goals after they scored their third goal and although the Wild did push back, the Stars did an excellent job of limiting Minnesota’s chances. Dallas barely allowed the Wild any good looks in the final frame, and it’s became the first team in the series to win two games in a row. Minnesota will have to do the same if they want to win the series, and the odds of that happening aren’t good enough to justify betting on them to do it.

Edmonton Oilers lead series 3-2

Edmonton jumped out to an early 2-0 lead in Game 1, but like a lot of the games in this series, the lead didn’t seem safe. That is, until the Oilers made it 5-2. Edmonton won the game 6-3 and now have a chance to end the series on Saturday.

That means these two teams have three days off to recover for Game 6, and after Connor McDavid played just 19:47 in Game 5, the best player in the world will be ready to log big minutes this weekend in Los Angeles. McDavid logged 30-plus minutes of ice time on the road in Game 4, and that will be something to discuss when player prop markets open for the next game.

Updated Series Probabilities

Edmonton Oilers Win Series: 85%

  • Oilers Win 4-2: 60%

  • Oilers Win 4-3: 25%


Los Angeles Kings Win Series: 15%

  • Kings Win 4-3: 15%


Game 5 was heavily tilted in favor of the Oilers in terms of expected goals, but it was a low-event game as neither team generated more than 50 shot attempts, which is quite a bit below league average. In other words, neither goaltender was all that good, and it’s somewhat concerning that the Oilers only seem to be able to beat the Kings in high-scoring games. Still, Edmonton is in a great position to advance to round two as they have about a 60 percent chance of winning Game 6.

Wednesday’s NHL Odds

Wednesday’s NHL schedule feature two big games. The Florida Panthers have been pushed to the brink of elimination by the Boston Bruins, and the Seattle Kraken are looking to take 3-2 series lead over the defending Stanley Cup champs.

  • Florida Panthers (+200) at Boston Bruins (-240)
  • Seattle Kraken (+155) at Colorado Avalanche (-180)


Get the latest updates for tonight’s games on Wednesday’s edition of the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast with Andy MacNeil and Danny Burke dropping later today. Wednesday’s guest is Michael Leboff of the Action Network, who always has great betting insight to share.

Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board.

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