NHL Series Betting: Updated series probabilities and best bets for Tuesday, April 25th

April 25, 2023 10:16 AM

Check out VSiN’s NHL Playoffs Hub each day for updated analysis and series predictions throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs:

Series Updates for Tuesday, April 25th

Toronto Maple Leafs lead series 3-1

It seemed like the Maple Leafs were writing another chapter in their book of playoff letdowns, as they trailed the Lightning by a score of 4-1 after 40 minutes, but Toronto came roaring back to tie the game 4-4 and sent it to overtime where they found a way to beat Andrei Vasilevskiy for the win.

Toronto is known for being on the other side of epic collapses, so coming back to win a game in which they were priced as high as 25-1 live is something fans and bettors could only dream of in recent years. The Maple Leafs now have a 92 percent chance of moving onto the next round.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Toronto Wins Series: 92%

  • Maple Leafs Win 4-1: 60%
  • Maple Leafs Win 4-2: 21%
  • Maple Leafs Win 4-3: 11%

Tampa Bay Wins Series: 8%

  • Lightning Win 4-3: 8%

The Maple Leafs were outplayed for the second game in a row, but they found a way to win, and the Lightning will have a tough time winning three games in a row against this team. Then again, Toronto hasn’t won a close-out game before.


New Jersey Devils tie series 2-2

For the second game in a row, rookie goaltender Akira Schmid held the New York Rangers and their star-studded lineup to just one goal, and now the series is all knotted up heading back to New Jersey. Blowing a 2-0 series lead after looking so dominant on the road can’t sit well with the Rangers, especially now that they’ve given the Devils time to find their playoff identity.

New Jersey played their best game of the playoffs so far, finishing with 60 percent of the shot attempts and a whopping 72 percent of the expected goals, and Schmid is clearly the best option right now. He’s hot, and the Devils are playing with a lot of confidence now. It’s going to be a hard series to win, but the Devils are in a good spot after winning both games at Madison Square Garden, and the series is now a best-of-three. Maybe the Devils can feed off their home-ice advantage this time.  

Updated Series Probabilities:

New York Rangers Win Series: 49%

  • Rangers Win 4-2: 25.5%
  • Rangers Win 4-3: 23.5%

New Jersey Devils Win Series: 51%

  • Devils Win 4-2: 25%
  • Devils Win 4-3: 26%

As good as New York has been in this series, someone other than Chris Kreider is going to have to start scoring some goals. He leads the team with five goals in three games. And where would New York be without their trade deadline acquisitions, Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane, who have at least chipped in with goals. Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, Alexis Lafrenière, and Adam Fox all could be making a bigger difference offensively. All that star power and they were held to just one goal by a first-time playoff team and a 22-year-old goaltender with 24 games of NHL experience.


Vegas Golden Knights lead series 3-1

This will probably sound like whining from a guy who is about to lose more money on the Winnipeg Jets than he already has, and maybe it is, but I don’t think we’re getting the series we should have gotten. Nikolaj Ehlers and Cole Perfetti haven’t played a game, Josh Morrissey was injured early in Game 3, and Mark Scheifele was injured early in Game 4. Winnipeg is a shell of the team I handicapped to play in this series.

Of course, credit to the Vegas Golden Knights for taking advantage, because now they’ve got a 91 percent chance to advance to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs after their 4-2 win in Winnipeg on Monday. It was a tightly contested game, but the Golden Knights held off the Jets as they tried to tie the game and added the insurance marker with 17 seconds to go.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Vegas Wins Series: 91%

  • Golden Knights Win 4-1: 56.5%
  • Golden Knights Win 4-2: 22.5%
  • Golden Knights Win 4-3: 12%

Winnipeg Wins Series: 9%

  • Jets Win 4-3: 9%

Morrissey has already been ruled out for the rest of the series, but Scheifele will be evaluated on Tuesday so expect some kind of announcement regarding his status for Game 5 soon.


Seattle Kraken tie series 2-2

As mentioned on Monday’s episode of the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast, bad news for the Avalanche as forward Valeri Nichushkin left the team due to personal reasons. Nichushkin was third in the team in goals during last year’s run to the Stanley Cup. With captain Gabriel Landeskog out for the season, that means the Avalanche are now without two of their three top goal scorers from the 2022 NHL Playoffs.

Seattle was able to take advantage of this on Monday, jumping out to an early lead for the fourth-straight game in the series, but unlike the last two games, they were able to hold on for the win in Game 4. The series is now tied 2-2, but Seattle lost their top goal scorer, Jared McCann, after a hit from Cale Makar. McCann has been ruled out for Game 4, while Makar will have a hearing with the NHL’s Department of Player Safety on Tuesday because the puck was nowhere near McCann when he interfered with him. It's a shame, too, because Seattle played a great game.

The Kraken finished Game 4 with 55 percent of the shot attempts and a 67 percent share of expected goals, according to stats website Evolving Hockey.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Colorado Wins Series: 67%

  • Avalanche Win 4-2: 37.5%
  • Avalanche Win 4-3: 29.5%

Seattle Wins Series: 33%

  • Kraken Win 4-2: 15%
  • Kraken Win 4-3: 18%

With McCann Out, the Kraken’s offense looks a lot less threatening, but we’ll have to wait and see how the NHL DoPS chooses to deal with Makar. I doubt we’ll see a suspension, but who knows.


Today’s NHL Odds

Tuesday’s NHL schedule features three great matchups and one team, the New York Islanders, is facing elimination. Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board.

  • New York Islanders (+135) at Carolina Hurricanes (-155)
  • Minnesota Wild (+120) at Dallas Stars (-140)
  • Los Angeles Kings (+195) at Edmonton Oilers (-230)

Today’s Best NHL Bet

Tuesday’s best bet is the Minnesota Wild (+125) on the moneyline in Game 5, which I talked about on Monday’s edition of the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast. I also referenced it in Monday’s article. We’ll discuss the Toronto Maple Leafs and the NHL Playoffs with NHL writer Dom Luszcyszyn from The Athletic on Tuesday’s episode.

All bets tracked via third part app Betstamp.

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