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Series Updates for Sunday, April 23rd
Saturday was the most dramatic day of the Stanley Cup Playoffs yet as three games were won in overtime and road teams went 4-0.
Toronto Maple Leafs lead series 2-1
The Maple Leafs didn’t deserve to win Game 3, but they did and that might be the difference between this team and years past. Toronto trailed 3-2 but tied the game late to send it to overtime where the Maple Leafs scored the winner in the final minute after being badly outplayed.
Tampa Bay finished the game with 63 percent of the shot attempts and 60 percent of the expected goals, but now face a 3-1 series deficit if they can’t win on Monday. In any event, the Lightning are playing much better than they did in the regular season (big surprise) and the Maple Leafs still have their work cut out for them.
Updated Series Probabilities:
Toronto Wins Series: 76%
- Maple Leafs Win 4-1: 30%
- Maple Leafs Win 4-2: 25.5%
- Maple Leafs Win 4-3: 20.5%
Tampa Bay Wins Series: 24%
- Lightning Win 4-2: 10%
- Lightning Win 4-3: 14%
New York Rangers lead series 2-0
It looks like we might have ourselves a series as the New Jersey Devils were able to lean on goaltender Akira Schmid on their way to an overtime victory in Madison Square Garden. It was New Jersey’s best effort so far in the playoffs, and nobody saw it coming after they were totally outclassed at home in the first two games, but Schmid was able to outduel Igor Shesterkin.
Schmid was good in the regular season saving approximately 8.5 goals above expected in 18 games played, but it’s a lot to ask for a 22-year-old to carry this team to a series victory. Goaltenders are voodoo, though, and while it is unlikely, the Devils have some momentum heading into Game 4 and their demise doesn’t seem so certain anymore. They’ve scored just four goals in three games against Igor Shesterkin, though, and that must change.
Updated Series Probabilities:
New York Rangers Win Series: 69%
- Rangers Win 4-1: 26%
- Rangers Win 4-2: 16%
- Rangers Win 4-3: 17%
New Jersey Devils Win Series: 31%
- Devils Win 4-2: 12%
- Devils Win 4-3: 19%
As good as New York has been in this series, someone other than Chris Kreider is going to have to start scoring some goals. He leads the team with five goals in three games. And where would New York be without their trade deadline acquisitions, Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane, who have at least chipped in with goals. Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, Alexis Lafrenière, and Adam Fox all could be making a bigger difference offensively. All that star power and they were held to just one goal by a first-time playoff team and a 22-year-old goaltender with 24 games of NHL experience.
Vegas Golden Knights lead series 2-1
Winnipeg gave up goals on the first two shots to start the game and in the second period, they were outshot 16-4 and scored on twice more. The Jets battled back from being down 4-1 with a 17-shot third period effort, though, and Adam Lowry tied the game with 21 seconds to play. Unfortunately, for myself and other Winnipeg backers, Michael Amadio won the game for the Golden Knights in double overtime.
Worst of all, Winnipeg lost their best defenseman, Josh Morrissey, and later announced that he will miss the rest of the series. The Jets were hopeful that Nikolaj Ehlers would be ready to go for Game 3, but the forward another game and his status for Game 4 is up in the air. Winnipeg didn’t play well in the first 40 minutes at home after playing two solid games in Vegas, but the way they finished the game, despite the loss, is a good sign. However, I’m not going to rush into betting them to win Game 4 at (currently) the same priced I paid to bet a better roster in Game 3.
Updated Series Probabilities:
Vegas Wins Series: 73%
- Golden Knights Win 4-1: 28%
- Golden Knights Win 4-2: 26%
- Golden Knights Win 4-3: 19%
Winnipeg Wins Series: 27%
- Jets Win 4-2: 11%
- Jets Win 4-3: 16%
The Jets missed a golden opportunity in Game 3, and now their chances of winning the series are just 27 percent.
Colorado Avalanche lead series 2-1
For the third time this series Colorado fell behind early in the game, and for the second time in a row, they came away with the win. It was another tightly contested game, but the margin of victory probably would’ve been wider had Alexandar Georgiev been better. Colorado owned 63 percent of the shot attempts and finished the game with a 70 percent share of expected goals.
Colorado Wins Series: 83%
- Avalanche Win 4-1: 37%
- Avalanche Win 4-2: 27.5%
- Avalanche Win 4-3: 18.5%
Seattle Wins Series: 17%
- Kraken Win 4-2: 6%
- Kraken Win 4-3: 11%
Today’s NHL Odds
Sunday’s NHL schedule features four more great matchups. Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board.
- Carolina Hurricanes (+105) at New York Islanders (-125)
- Boston Bruins (-150) at Florida Panthers (+130)
- Dallas Stars (EVEN) at Minnesota Wild (-120)
- Edmonton Oilers (-155) at Los Angeles Kings (+135)
Today’s Best NHL Bet
Edmonton Oilers 60 Min (Regulation) +105
The Oilers haven’t done themselves any favors, but Los Angeles has been leaning heavily on their goaltending and the officiating isn’t likely to remain as lopsided as it has been. Edmonton is generating the most expected goals per 60 of any playoff team, and that matches up with what we saw in the regular season.
The difference here is that the Oilers’ shooting percentage has dropped from 11.8 to 7.4 thanks to Joonas Korpisalo. It doesn’t seem sustainable, though, and with Edmonton’s expected goal differential per 60 minutes being the second-highest in the playoffs to date, the Oilers should earn a decisive victory in this series at some point and +105 (DraftKings Sportsbook) is a good price for this bet.
All bets tracked via third part app Betstamp.