NHL Series Betting: Updated series probabilities and best bets for Saturday, April 29th

April 29, 2023 09:53 AM

Check out VSiN’s NHL Playoffs Hub each day for updated analysis and series predictions throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs and listen to the latest episode of VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast wherever you get your podcasts.

Series Updates for Saturday, April 29th

Carolina Hurricanes advance to the second round of Stanley Cup Playoffs

Carolina trailed by a goal until Sebastian Aho tied the game midway through the third period. Paul Stastny was the overtime hero with his third goal of the series. Now, the Hurricanes await the winner of the other Metropolitan Division series. Series previews will drop when the matchups are set, but here are some early series predictions:

  • New Jersey Devils vs Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina Hurricanes win 51%
  • New York Rangers vs Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina Hurricanes win 53%


Florida Panthers tie series 3-3

The Bruins have blown a 3-1 series lead after losing back-to-back games versus the Panthers. Game 7 is scheduled for Sunday in Boston.

Game 6 was wild and for the first time in the series, Florida was (objectively) the better team, but once again, the Bruins helped them out by mismanaging the puck. I still think Boston is the better team, but there’s panic in their game and that’s not a good sign.

Neither is their play on defense, as Boston’s blue line has yet to produce a single goal in the series and the Panthers have exposed goaltender Linus Ullmark. Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been good overall, either, but the Bruins are supposed to have a big edge in the crease and that hasn’t been the case. I could see Jeremy Swayman getting the nod in Game 7, but in hindsight it might have been wise to have gone with Swayman in Game 6.  

Updated Series Probabilities:

  • Boston Bruins Win Series: 68%
  • Florida Panthers Win Series: 32%


If there’s a chance Game 7 is anything like Game 6, betting either team pregame seems kind of silly because there were opportunities to get both teams at better odds in-game because of all the lead changes.

Colorado Avalanche tie series 3-3

Seattle opened the scoring (after a Colorado goal was called back) for the sixth time in the series, but Game 6 was owned by the Avalanche. Colorado dominated the game with a 64 percent share of shots and 70 percent share of expected goals. Now, the two teams will meet to decide the series in Game 7 on Sunday in Colorado.

Seattle, playing in their most important game to date, with Colorado on the ropes failed to play up to the standard they had set in the series, and for the first time in the series, they looked like an expansion team playing the defending Stanley Cup champions.

Updated Series Probabilities:

  • Colorado Avalanche Win Series: 64%
  • Seattle Kraken Win Series: 36%


The Kraken’s goaltending has been good, and Philipp Grubauer is the only reason that the Game 6 score wasn’t more lopsided. The Kraken have more fight in them than they showed in Game 6, with or without forward Jared McCann, but now that the Avalanche have awoken, defeating them in their own building in an elimination game is going to be tough.

Dallas Stars advance to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Jake Oettinger shut the door on Minnesota with a shutout streak that lasted over 114 minutes and the Dallas Stars eliminated the Wild from the playoffs. The Stars now await the winner of Game 7 between Colorado and Seattle. Series previews will drop when the matchups are set, but here are some early series predictions:

  • Colorado Avalanche versus Dallas Stars: Colorado Avalanche win 52%
  • Seattle Kraken versus Dallas Stars: Dallas Stars win 67%


Dallas matches up well against both teams, but getting to face the Kraken in round two would make their path to the Stanley Cup a lot easier. They’ve beaten Colorado before, though, and this team has a lot more offensive punch than previous Dallas teams.

Updated Series Probabilities

Eastern Conference


Western Conference


Today’s NHL Odds

Three teams are facing elimination on Friday as the Maple Leafs, Devils, and Oilers all look to book their tickets to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board.

  • Toronto Maple Leafs (-110) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-110)
  • New Jersey Devils (+105) at New York Rangers (-125)
  • Edmonton Oilers (-170) at Los Angeles Kings (+145)


Today’s Best NHL Bet

Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-165)

Connor McDavid played under 20 minutes in Game 5, which is unusual, but the Oilers had the game in hand. Now, with three days’ rest, the Oilers’ captain will be more than fresh if he must log big minutes in Game 6 or Game 7, if necessary. I suspect will see McDavid log somewhere around 25 minutes on Saturday, and that bodes well for his chances of going over his shots on goal total for the fifth time in the series.

McDavid came into the season with a shooter’s mindset, and in 15 games (regular season and playoffs) in which he played 25-plus minutes of ice time, he averaged 8.5 shot attempts and 5.5 shots on goal. McDavid has registered at least four shots in 12 of those 15 games and should be relied upon heavily to help eliminate the Kings and avoid a Game 7.

Note: I’m marking this down at the prop that is offered at DraftKings Sportsbook, but I’d suggest looking at alt numbers like five-plus shots on goal or six-plus shots on goal at plus money odds. McDavid has five-plus shots three times against the Kings in the series.

All bets tracked via third party app Betstamp.

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