NHL Series Betting: Updated series probabilities and best bets for Monday, April 24th

April 24, 2023 09:24 AM

Check out VSiN’s NHL Playoffs Hub each day for updated analysis and series predictions throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs:

Series Updates for Monday, April 24th

Boston Bruins lead series 3-1

The Bruins picked up two decisive road playoff wins without Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci in the lineup this week and now the Panthers are on the brink of elimination as the series shifts back to Boston. Bergeron is likely to return for Game 5, too.

Boston finished the game with 70-plus percent of the expected goals and won the game by a score of 6-2. Linus Ullmark was fantastic when he needed to be, Sergei Bobrovsky, who started his first game of the series, was not.

It’s unclear if Florida will go back to Bobrovsky on Tuesday, or give Alex Lyon another opportunity, but either way, the Panthers odds of winning three games in a row are less than five percent.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Boston Bruins Win Series: 96%

  • Bruins Win 4-1: 67%
  • Bruins Win 4-2: 20%
  • Bruins Win 4-3: 9%

Florida Panthers Win Series: 14%

  • Panthers Win 4-3: 4%


Boston now an 87 percent chance of winning the series in six games or fewer, and odds are that it will be over in five.


Carolina Hurricanes lead series 3-1

New York came out of the gate with a lot of jump, but they were not able to beat Antti Raanta until the game was already virtually out of reach for them. The Hurricanes led 4-0 at the beginning of the third period and the Islanders were never able to get back in the game. Carolina now has three chances to end the series and given that they’re a -165 favorite in Game 5, it unlikely that this series will see a sixth game.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Carolina Hurricanes Win Series: 91%

  • Hurricanes Win 4-1: 57%
  • Hurricanes Win 4-2: 22%
  • Hurricanes Win 4-3: 12%

New York Islanders Win Series: 9%

  • Islanders Win 4-3: 9%


Carolina isn’t as much of a force as a lot of us thought they would be due to injuries to some of their most talented offensive players, but the Islanders aren’t getting enough production from their big guns. Bo Horvat, the Islanders big trade deadline acquisition, scored his first goal of the playoffs, albeit a meaningless one, late in Game 4, and Matt Barzal has just one point (a goal in Game 2) so far. That’s obviously not cutting it.


Dallas Stars tie series 2-2

Jake Oettinger stole the show early in Game 4 and the Stars seemed to feed off his performance as the game went on, earning a big edge in expected goals by the end of the second period. The Wild made things interesting in the final frame, but ultimately, they came up short.

The series shifts back to Dallas for Game 5 on Tuesday, and while the Stars do seem to have the momentum, the gap between these two teams isn’t very wide and I estimate that Dallas will win the series just 55 percent of the time.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Dallas Stars Win Series: 55%

  • Stars Win 4-2: 28%
  • Stars Win 4-3: 27%

Minnesota Wild Win Series: 45%

  • Wild Win 4-2: 23%
  • Wild Win 4-3: 22%


Head coach Dean Evason can erase the value I see in the Wild on the moneyline (+125) heading into Game 5 if he chooses not to start Filip Gustavsson, who has been great in the series, but I’d like to think after the Wild’s ugly loss in Game 2, Fleury won’t start another game in the series.

Best Bet: Minnesota Wild (Game 5 Moneyline) +125

All bets tracked via third part app Betstamp.


Edmonton Oilers tie series 2-2

Joonas Korpisalo was outstanding early in the game, while Stuart Skinner failed to make any big saves, and that allowed the Kings to jump out to an early 3-0 lead in Game 4. The Oilers battled back, though, and eventually won in overtime on a Zach Hyman wrist shot.

Los Angeles played their best game of the series, though, finishing the game with a slight edge in shots and 55 percent of the expected goals, and the tone of the series has shifted with the return of forward Kevin Fiala, who played his first game of the playoffs on Sunday.

But, with the series now being a best-of-three, the Oilers have two home games versus one home game for the Kings, and that tilts the series odds in Edmonton’s favor at 64 percent.

Updated Series Probabilities:

Edmonton Oilers Win Series: 64%

  • Oilers Win 4-2: 34%
  • Oilers Win 4-3: 30%

Los Angeles Kings Win Series: 36%

  • Kings Win 4-2: 17%
  • Kings Win 4-3: 19%


Saturday’s NHL Odds

Saturday’s NHL schedule kicks off at 1:00 p.m. PST with a pivotal Game 3 between the Jets and Golden Knights. Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board.

  • New Jersey Devils (+130) at New York Rangers (-150)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs (-110) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-110)
  • Vegas Golden Knights (-115) at Winnipeg Jets (-105)
  • Colorado Avalanche (-150) at Seattle Kraken (+130)

Listen to the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast later today wherever you get your podcasts as Danny Burke and I go over our best NHL bets for Monday with guest Andrew Patterson of Winnipeg Sports Talk.

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