NHL Playoffs Betting: Projected moneyline odds, predictions, and best bets for Monday, April 17th

April 17, 2023 09:00 AM

The 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs kick off on Monday with four matchups: Islanders at Hurricanes, Panthers at Bruins, Wild at Stars, and Kings at Oilers. Visit VSiN’s NHL Playoffs Hub for a breakdown of each matchup, plus series predictions and probabilities. Also, check out today’s episode of the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast with guest hockey handicapper @SoMoneySports dropping later today.

Today’s NHL Odds via VSiN NHL Odds

  • New York Islanders (+145) at Carolina Hurricanes (-165)
  • Florida Panthers (+180) at Boston Bruins (-210)
  • Minnesota Wild (+125) at Dallas Stars (-145)
  • Los Angeles Kings (+170) at Edmonton Oilers (-190)

Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the full board.

NHL Predictions and Best Bets for Monday

Not much stands out at this point of the regular season, but I do have one angle I’m going to shoot with the hopes that things work out in my favor. Regardless, I’ve provided my projected moneyline odds for each game below.

New York Islanders (+145) at Carolina Hurricanes (-165)

As far as the series goes, the Islanders +165 odds weren’t enticing enough to warrant a bet on the underdog to advance to the second round. But, with odds as high as +155 to win Game 1, I’m betting on the Islanders to win Game 1. The Hurricanes’ offense has been far from efficient since forward Andrei Svechnikov went down with a season-ending injury in early March, and sniper Max Pacioretty isn’t coming back to help. Carolina is still the better team, but the gap between them and the Islanders has narrowed over the last couple of months.

The Hurricanes won the season series 3-1, but three games took place prior to the start of February and that doesn’t matter as much as what the teams have done lately. New York has been better on offense since the start of March, and they’re just as good as the Hurricanes on defense, at least on the surface. Of course, a lot of that is because of goaltender Ilya Sorokin, and this is a bet that will lose more often than it wins, but after handicapping this game, I’ve landed closer to -140 as a fair price for the home team. That means the Islanders start to be an attractive bet at +145 and up, although I wouldn’t recommend betting them at those odds when +150 and +155 are available at some shops.

Note: Forward Mat Barzal is expected to return to the Islanders lineup on Monday.

Bet: New York Islanders +145 (or better) for 1/2 unit

See series probabilities here.

Florida Panthers (+180) at Boston Bruins (-210)

While I am on the Bruins to win the series in 6 games or fewer (series puck line -1.5), I am not betting on them to win Game 1. My projected moneyline odds (around -215 in favor of Boston) line up closely with the betting market today, and therefore, I don’t any reason take any additional positions on the Bruins. If you’re opposite of me, and you like the Panthers to win Game 1, I would certainly recommend shopping around. Florida is priced closed to +200 at some shops, so betting the Cats at +180 would be an objectively bad bet.

See series probabilities here.

Minn​esota Wild (+125) at Dallas Stars (-145)

Minnesota opened around +120 but have since been bet up to as high as +130 at some shops, so it appears as if the betting market is showing the Stars a little more love than anticipated. However, while my model might be showing a little bit of a value on the Wild (+127 fair price), the edge is too small, and therefore, unplayable. Some sportsbooks have started to move the line toward +135 on the side of the road team, though, and I’ll become interested in betting on the Wild if those odds become widely available.

See series probabilities here.

Los Angeles Kings (+165) at Edmonton Oilers (-185)

As mentioned in this article, I’m on the Oilers to win the first period (-0.5 goals) in Game 1 at +145. Edmonton claims to be a more mature team, and I would agree with them, but how they start this series will be important. The Oilers advanced to the third round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and each time they went down 0-1 to start the series. Of course, Edmonton battled back to beat Los Angeles in the first round and Calgary in the second round, but starting strong to avoid getting into that kind of situation again should be the number one priority for the home team and highest scoring first-period team in the league. Other than that, I don’t currently have any action on this series.

See series probabilities here.

All bets tracked via third part app Betstamp.

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