NHL Offseason: Expect the Unexpected
The 2022-23 NHL season has come to an end and the Vegas Golden Knights are your Stanley Cup champions. The NHL Entry Draft is next up on the calendar, then free agency, and many important questions might not be answered until the smoke clears in the summer, which certainly makes it harder to make long term forecasts. With that in mind, let's take a look at some of the things that make predicting the 2023-24 season tough.
Jump on the Goalie Carousel
It wouldn’t be surprising to see more than a third of the teams in the NHL mix things up at the goaltending position and shake up the futures board in a big way. Here a handful of teams that have some big decisions to make:
Adin Hill and Laurent Brossoit - Vegas Golden Knights
Goaltending depth proved to be an important factor for the Golden Knights in 2022-23, but they are one of the many teams entering the offseason with some big decisions to make. Adin Hill, Laurent Brossoit, and Jonathan Quick are set to become unrestricted free agents this offseason, and Hill and Brossoit are both due for a raise. The only goaltender Vegas has signed, besides the injured Robin Lehner, is Logan Thompson, who is coming off an injury that kept him out of all but two games between Jan. 28th and the end of the season.
Connor Hellebuyck - Winnipeg Jets
The rumour is that Connor Hellebuyck’s next contract will not be with the Winnipeg Jets, and if he does find himself a new home this offseason, it’ll send shockwaves through the NHL because there are several ways it could work out. Teams like the New Jersey Devils, Buffalo Sabres, and Los Angeles Kings are looking for a goaltender and if Hellebuyck were to go to any of those teams it would really cause a stir in the betting world because each one of those teams appears to be a couple of pieces away where they want to be.
John Gibson - Anaheim Ducks
Gibson has spent his entire career with the Ducks, and at one point he was seen as one of the best goaltenders in hockey. Now, not so much, but I’m sure there are at least a few teams who feel Gibson might be a good fit. Anaheim must begin to make some forward progress under new head coach Greg Cronin, but the team isn’t done tanking yet, or at least they shouldn’t be. It just doesn’t make sense for the Ducks to hold onto Gibson at this point. There’s a decent chance that all three California-based teams will have new starting goaltenders in 2023-24.
Carter Hart - Philadelphia Flyers
Hart is still seen by some as the next great goalie from Canada, but he struggled mightily between 2020 and 2022. Hart bounced back last season, saving the Flyers almost 13 goals above expected, but it looks like the Flyers might want to trade him while his value his high. The problem is that Hart’s value isn’t very high. Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reported that teams aren’t keen on trading for Hart because of the now completed investigation stemming from an incident at the World Junior Hockey Championship in 2018.
Linus Ullmark - Boston Bruins
It’s crazy to think that Ullmark could be on the block, but his contract is a dream after his Vezina Trophy worthy season and the Bruins could be looking to clear cap space to stay competitive in other areas. The Bruins bought low on Ullmark and given that there’s very little chance he will repeat, it makes it a lot easier for them to sell low on him this offseason. It also helps that Jeremy Swayman is younger and he as good as Ullmark down the stretch, if not better.
Teams like Carolina, Ottawa, and Pittsburgh could also have new starting goaltenders next season, and their outlook for next season could change a lot because of that.
Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews Headline Weak Free Agent Class
Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews headline a weak free agent class. Don’t get me wrong, there are some intriguing names, but the Rangers added both Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko and that didn’t benefit from it. It’ll be a lot easier not to put stock into the signings that take place this summer with so few impact players available. Here are some of the more notable names that headline this summer’s free agent class:
- Patrick Kane
- Jonathan Toews
- Ryan O’Reilly
- Vladimir Tarasenko
- James van Riemsdyk
- John Klingberg
- Dmitry Orlov
- Tyler Bertuzzi
- Max Pacioretty
- Matthew Dumba
- Jordan Staal
- Jason Zucker
NHL Trade Market Full of Intrigue
Unlike free agency, the NHL trade market could provide a lot of theatre this summer with several stars on the verge of finding new homes in 2023-24.
Pierre Luc-Dubois and Mark Scheifele - Winnipeg Jets
On top of possibly parting ways with Hellebuyck, the Winnipeg Jets could also look to move forwards Pierre-Luc Dubois and Mark Scheifele. Dubois reportedly has no interest in signing with the Jets and reports suggest that we could be looking at a sign and trade deal, like we saw with Matthew Tkachuk last offseason. Dubois is a real difference maker, while Scheifele provides some value. If Dubois is moved to a team like Montreal, or another Eastern Conference team that missed the playoffs in 2022-23, it would create more parity.
Alex DeBrincat - Ottawa Senators
Last week Sportsnet’s Elliott Friedman reported that the Ottawa Senators are looking to trade pending restricted free agent Alex DeBrincat. After spending his entire career in Chicago, DeBrincat was traded to the Senators last offseason. The now 25-year-old had a down year, but there will be no shortage of teams interested in acquiring him. Friedman felt that the Detroit Red Wings and St. Louis Blues are two teams that could be interested.
Patrice Bergeron - Boston Bruins
The Boston Bruins have some tough decisions to make after they choked in the first round of the playoffs after setting the record for most wins and points by an NHL team in history. One of those tough decisions is not up to the team, though, as captain Patrice Bergeron must decide between returning retiring or returning for another season. Bergeron is still a top player in the league, but few players have played as much hockey as he as over the last 15 years. The Bruins will likely make it work if Bergeron wants to come back, but David Krejci has likely played his last NHL game and if Bergeron retires there will be two big holes at the center position.
2023-24 Stanley Cup Odds
This offseason, there are so many question marks that I don’t believe one team stands out as a great futures bet. You could argue that some of the longer shots like Washington and Vancouver will perform better next year, or maybe you think a team like Dallas or Florida should be higher on the list given where they finished. I’ll likely bet a longshot like Los Angeles when their goaltending situations becomes a little clearer, but some of the teams that strike me as up and comers are priced a little too generously. Buffalo is trending in the right direction, but 40/1? Yeah, they better get Connor Hellebuyck. Los Angeles is a team I really like, but 25/1 with Joonas Korpisalo doesn’t seem fair. Now, if I could get the Kings at those odds around the same time, they announce that they landed a solid starting goaltender, that’s something I would consider. The same goes for a team like Dallas at 16/1 if they figure out a way to add another star player without giving one up.
Check out the full list from DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Colorado Avalanche 8/1
- Boston Bruins 8/1
- Toronto Maple Leafs 9/1
- New Jersey Devils 12/1
- Carolina Hurricanes 12/1
- Vegas Golden Knights 13/1
- New York Rangers 14/1
- Florida Panthers 14/1
- Tampa Bay Lightning 16/1
- Dallas Stars 16/1
- Calgary Flames 20/1
- Pittsburgh Penguins 30/1
- Minnesota Wild 30/1
- New York Islanders 50/1
- Washington Capitals 50/1
- Winnipeg Jets 60/1
- Nashville Predators 75/1
- Philadelphia Flyers 150/1
- Columbus Blue Jackets 200/1
- Montreal Canadiens 250/1
- San Jose Sharks 250/1
- Chicago Blackhawks 250/1
- Arizona Coyotes 250/1
- Anaheim Ducks 250/1