NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Wednesday, November 30th

November 30, 2022 09:43 AM

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NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Wednesday, November 30th

Recap: Monday’s best bet got off to a terrible start when, shortly before the game, the Penguins announced that their No. 1 defenseman, Kris Letang, would miss the game due to illness. Pittsburgh opened the scoring, but they couldn’t hold onto the lead and lost the game on one of the more ridiculous sequences you’ll see in three-on-three overtime.

Wednesday: There are four games scheduled for Wednesday, but there aren’t any attractive sides.

Tuesday’s Bets: There are no bets currently.

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

Wins: 34

Losses: 38

Units Won: -4.64 units

ROI: -9.8 percent

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

Buffalo Sabres (+115) at Detroit Red Wings (-135)

If Ville Husso was expected to start in goal for the Red Wings, I’d bet on them to beat the Sabres at -130. It won’t be Husso, though, as the team has already confirmed that Alex Nedeljkovic will be their starting goaltender. Nedeljkovic ranks fifth-worst in goals saved above expected, but if we’re judging him on efficiency, he’s probably the worst goaltender in the league right now given that the other goaltenders who have allowed as many goals above expected have played almost twice as many games.

Buffalo will play Colorado on Thursday, so it’s unclear who they will start in goal on Wednesday, but they might have the upper hand in that department regardless. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been below average in his three starts, and throughout his NHL caree. Craig Anderson, on the other hand, has been good. He’s posted a .916 save percentage and has saved the team almost three goals above expected. Anderson was bad last season, though, and it’s hard to have confidence in the 41-year-old based on the nine games he’s played in 2022-23.

The Sabres grade out as a top-10 team on offense currently, but no team has allowed goals at a higher rate than Buffalo in the month of November and Luukkonen has been awful. Detroit has been solid defensively, but with Nedeljkovic in goal, you can almost throw that out the window. Goaltending and defense might be optional at times in this one, and therefore, this could be a wild game. The Sabres are 11-4 to the over in their last 15 games, and if it wasn’t for the Red Wings mediocrity, the total would be set at a higher number.

New York Rangers (-125) at Ottawa Senators (+105)

Ottawa has a slight rest advantage coming into this game, having had two days off while the Rangers have had just one day off. Neither team has announced a starting goaltender but given that both teams will be off until they meet again in New York on December 2nd, let’s assume that Igor Shesterkin and Cam Talbot will be the starting goaltenders.

New York has only won four games in their last 12, and they’re trying to avoid losing their fourth in a row. Their struggles this season are mostly due to the team is not performing well on offense. The Rangers have only scored more than three goals three times in their last 12 games. Ottawa might be able to match the Rangers on offense, but they aren’t necessarily a good offensive team, either.

The Senators do generate a lot of shots, though, ranking third in the league in shot attempts per 60 minutes in the month of November, but defensively, there’s a big gap here. The Rangers grade out as a top-five team in shot attempts against. The Senators, meanwhile, rank 21st in shot attempts against, and 24th in expected goals against. My NHL betting model prices the Rangers around -130 assuming Shesterkin is in goal.

San Jose Sharks (+255) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-310)

San Jose Sharks’ head coach, David Quinn, said that he would consider starting goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen on back-to-back nights if he stood on his head in Montreal on Tuesday and there’s a good chance that it happens. I mean, a 28-save shutout probably qualifies as standing on your head, right? San Jose ended a three-game losing streak with its 4-0 win over the Canadiens, but according to my model, and the betting market, they’re not in a good position to win on Wednesday.

Toronto has won seven of their last 10 games and the team looks to be playing up to the weaker opponents that they played down to for so long. The Maple Leafs rank eighth in expected goals and have the fifth-best goal share in the month of November. The Sharks have gained back some respect, though, grading out as one of the top-10 offensive teams since the nightmare that was the month of October ended. Still, the Sharks will be playing tired, and, by the sounds of things, their goaltender likely will be tired, too.

My NHL betting model suggests that Toronto will win the game about 73 percent (-270) of the time, so I won’t be able to justify a chalky bet on the home team at -310, and +255 isn’t big enough to warrant betting on the road team. Toronto is still dealing with injuries to several important players, but it hasn’t slowed them down, which is odd. They could still hit a bump, but it will likely be smooth sailing on Wednesday if Matt Murray starts in goal. If Erik Kallgren gets the nod, it opens the door a little bit for an upset.

Update: There are reports out of Leafs' practice that suggests starting goaltender Ilya Samsonov will make his return to the crease on Wednesday. Nothing has been confirmed, though, but this rules out any chance that I would take a flier on the underdog.

Edmonton Oilers (-220) at Chicago Blackhawks (+190)

Edmonton is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time in a month and there’s a good chance they will make it three in a row against the Blackhawks on Wednesday. Chicago has lost seven games in a row (mostly at home) and the team has only picked up two wins in its last 15 games. The Blackhawks grade out as the worst offensive team in the NHL, and a team like the Oilers shouldn’t have trouble with them. However, if Jack Campbell ends up starting in goal for the Oilers, things could get a little dicey. Campbell ranks as the fourth-worst goaltender in goals saved above expected and he has the worst save percentage among goaltender who have faced at least 450 unblocked shot attempts.

Campbell started in goal the last time these two teams met, and it was a wild game. The Oilers and Blackhawks traded goals for 60 minutes and, if not for last-minute goal by Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers might have lost the game. Chicago is a bad hockey team, but the Oilers aren’t a good hockey team right now. Edmonton ranks among the bottom-10 teams in goals against, shots against and expected goals against over the last 30 days and their offense is producing goals at a below-average rate. The Oilers’ depth has also taken a hit recently. Evander Kane is out long term, and forwards Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod and Kailer Yamamoto are questionable heading into the game. My NHL betting model prices the Oilers around -205 and I don’t know why anybody would want to bet on this team in this spot.

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