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NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Wednesday, December 14th
Recap: The Capitals covered the puck line easily on the back of Ovechkin’s hattrick, but it was the smallest bet of the three that I made, so it didn’t matter that much when it was all said and done. Bigger bets on Nashville and Winnipeg lost.
Wednesday’s Bets: There are currently no best bets.
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Wins: 41 Losses: 46 Units Won: -7.01 units ROI: -14.8 percent
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Ottawa lost forwards Tim Stutzle and Tyler Motte to injury on Monday and both players are regarded as day-to-day. The Senators are already without Mathieu Joseph and defenseman Artem Zub, so injuries to two of their best forwards could really hold the team back. The Senators, like the Canadiens, are a bottom-10 team in expected goals against. But, unlike Montreal, Ottawa ranks in the top-half of the league in goals against. The two teams have scored goals at the same rate, but the Senators drive play and generate more shots and scoring chances, and still deserve to be big favorite.
Montreal is also shorthanded, but they’ve shown that they’re competitive and it’s been hard for teams to put them away. According to my model, the home team shouldn’t be priced any higher than -200 if Jake Allen is in goal for the road team. In other words, even if Stutzle and Motte are cleared to play, there’s no value betting on the Senators, even if they are the better team. That doesn’t mean there will be value betting on the Canadiens, though. It just means that the market has this matchup figured out.
Note: Montreal forward Cole Caufield is expected to be in the lineup after leaving Monday’s game against the Flames with an upper body injury.
Update: Tim Stutzle and Tyler Motte will be out for at least a week.
Detroit fell 1-0 to the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday at home, and they also lost captain Dylan Larkin to injury. The Red Wings are already missing Tyler Bertuzzi and several other players, so their tired and injured, which puts them in a terrible spot to beat the Wild on Wednesday in Minnesota. And I haven’t even mentioned that Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to start in goal. Detroit has lost three in a row, and everything points to an easy win for Minnesota. The game line is tight, though, at least according to my model. The Wild aren’t exactly rested, but they will win the game approximately 72 percent (-255) of the time.
That doesn’t mean much from a betting perspective, though, because that’s exactly where most shops have the line. The Wild have been a top-10 team in expected in goals over the last month, but they’ve only managed to score about 52 percent of the goals. And even though they’ve been winning a lot lately, they haven’t been blowing teams out or winning big. Most of their games are decided by one goal because of their inability to dominate teams, but there’s a good chance they’ll dominate this depleted Red Wings team tonight.
After going 0-3 on their road trip, the Flames are back in Calgary to host the Vancouver Canucks in what will be their fourth game in six days. It’s unclear who will start in goal for the Flames, but we do know Spencer Martin will be in goal for the Canucks, who have had three days off. Calgary is the better team, and they should win the game, but their lineup has some holes. Elias Lindholm (injury), MacKenzie Weegar (illness) and Chris Tanev (injury) are all regarded as day-to-day, and the Flames will be lucky if they get one or two players back in time for this game.
Vancouver has won eight of its last 12 games, but this is a dysfunctional group that is wrapped up in off-ice drama and I wouldn’t bet on them being consistent. Martin is a wild card, having only played 23 games at the NHL level, and the team ranks among the bottom-10 on defense. They are a competent offensive team, though, which is something the Flames are not, and that could give Calgary trouble considering that they rank 21st on offense and don’t always get good goaltender from Jacob Markstrom and Dan Vladar. There might be some value on the Canucks right now, but if the Flames get any of their injured players back, that will no longer be the case.
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