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NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Thursday, December 1st
Thursday: There are six games scheduled for Monday, but there aren’t a lot of attractive betting opportunities.
Thursday’s Bets: Seattle Kraken -125
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Wins: 34 Losses: 38 Units Won: -4.64 units ROI: -9.8 percent
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Seattle has won 13 of their last 17 games, including six in a row, and have averaged over four goals per game. Only the Dallas Stars have scored goals at a higher rate than the Kraken have during that stretch. Seattle also grades out as a top-10 defensive team, and therefore, should be priced as a bigger favorite on Thursday against the Capitals.
Washington is coming off a 5-1 win in Vancouver, and they’ve won three out of their last four, but the Capitals have lost 11 of their last 17 games and injuries continue to hold them back from reaching their true potential. The Capitals rank 24th on offense in all situations. They’re not bad defensively, but they’re not as good as the Kraken.
Goaltending is the one area where the Kraken don’t have an edge over the Capitals. Starter Darcy Kuemper has saved the team approximately eight goals above expected this season. Martin Jones has been good for the Kraken, but his GSAx is in in the red and Philipp Grubauer, who I project will start on Thursday, hasn’t been good for a while.
If Kuemper and Jones are the starting goaltenders my NHL betting model suggests that the Kraken should be priced around -150, but the line would be a lot closer to -135 if Grubauer gets the nod. I’m betting on the Kraken at -125 to win one unit. I might consider adding to my position later in the day, but that will depend on the lineups and staring goaltenders.
Note: Capitals’ defenseman Dimitry Orlov has not played since Nov. 5th,. He didn’t travel with the team to begin the road trip, but I’m not sure if there is any plan for him to meet them in Seattle. Washington still has three road games remaining on this trip.
Panthers’ forward Aleksandar Barkov has missed the last three games due to an illness. He’s feeling better, according to the team, but there is no word on whether he join the team in Vancouver to play Thursday’s game. If he doesn’t play, there’s some value on the Canucks at +120, but otherwise, the game is priced appropriately. The Panthers have lost the first two games on this road trip, and they’ve gone 4-7-1 on the road this season. Both Florida and Vancouver rank among the bottom-10 teams in goals against, but the Canucks’ offense should be enough to make this game a competitive one.
Carter Hart has been great on the season, but his recent starts have left a lot to be desired. The 24-year-old has saved the team approximately 14 goals above expected, year-to-date, but he’s allowed almost three goals above expected in his last seven games and the Flyers have lost 10 of their last 11 games. In other words, I don’t think bettors should be scared to bet against the Flyers at this point. However, this is the Lightning’s third game in four days, and their chances of winning this game aren’t quite as good as they would be if they were rested. Still, my NHL betting model prices the Lightning around -225, and therefore, the value is on the road team. However, given that the line has moved toward the Flyers already, -210 might not be the best of it.
Update: Carter Hart will start for the Flyers. Travis Konecny and Tony DeAngelo are regarded as game-time decisions.
Kris Letang and Alex Pietrangelo are both going to miss Thursday’s game, so both Pittsburgh and Vegas will be without their best defensemen. The betting market isn’t having a hard time handicapping this one, though. Vegas has been the better team, but they haven’t been playing like it as of late, and therefore, this game is appropriately lined like a coin flip. The Penguins have been better through the lens of expected goals in the month of November, and they’ve produced similar results on offense and defense. I expect this game to be played at very high pace. Both teams rank in the top-half of the league in terms of shot generation and in the bottom-half of the league in shot suppression.
Update: Tristan Jarry will start in goal for the Penguins.
If I was Jay Woodcroft, I probably would have started Jack Campbell (the lesser of the Oilers’ goaltenders) against Chicago on Wednesday. The Blackhawks are the worst offensive team in the league. The Wild haven’t been good on offense this season, but they have a lot more skill than a team like Chicago and their offensive efficiency has been improving. Instead, the Oilers leaned on Stuart Skinner to help them earn a victory over the Blackhawks, and that means Campbell will almost certainly start Thursday’s game versus the Wild.
Minnesota has won three of their last four, but they haven’t figured it out just yet, losing about as many games as they win on average. The Wild’s defense has improved a lot, though, as the team ranks first in expected goals against in the month of November, and that’s the biggest reason that my NHL betting model prices them at -145. Edmonton is an average offensive team that is relying more heavily on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl than they have in recent years.
Update: Marc-Andre Fleury will start in goal for the Wild.
My NHL betting model prices the Devils at -190, assuming the starting goaltenders are Juuse Saros and Vitek Vanecek. However, Nashville is set to play the Islanders on Friday, and as a result, there’s a chance that backup Kevin Lankinen will start Thursday’s game in New Jersey. Lankinen hasn’t played since November 23rd, and he’s posted a .922 save percentage in the six games that he’s played so far. He's a downgrade from Juuse Saros, for sure, but not so much that the Devils would be a good play at -200. There might end up being some value on the home team, but not enough to justify laying -200.
Update: Juuse Saros will start for the Predators. Vitek Vanecek is expected to start for the Devils.
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