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NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Sunday, November 27th
Recap: It’s not very often that you get 30 cents of closing line value on a team that closes -200 (Vegas) and you don’t win your bet, let alone lose by four goals, but both of Saturday’s best bets lost despite beating the closing line by quite a bit.
Sunday: There are just five games scheduled for Sunday.
Sunday’s Bets: Winnipeg Jets -160
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Wins: 33 Losses: 37 Units Won: -4.49 units ROI: -9.5 percent
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
If I knew Connor Hellebuyck would be the starting goaltender for the Jets, I would bet Winnipeg right now at -160. However, until the team confirms that will be the case, I can’t risk it. Hellebuyck is one of the best goaltenders in the league, and the drop off from him to backup David Rittich is a big one. Rittich has a 3-1 record, but the Jets have won despite his .890 save percentage and he has been a below-average goaltender for the last several seasons.
Winnipeg has graded out quite well over their last 10 games, ranking as the eighth-best team in expected goals in all situations. Their peripherals aren’t great, but they’re not bad, and with their goaltender playing the way he has, the Jets have a good chance to outscore most teams in the NHL, let alone the Blackhawks. Chicago is the worst offensive team in the NHL and the Jets’ defense has improved as time has gone on. I’ll post an update on Twitter later today, one way or the other.
Update: Jets' head coach Rick Bowness wasn't ready to name a starter earlier, but now that Connor Hellebuyck is confirmed as Winnipeg's starter, and therefore, I am betting on the Jets to beat the Blackhawks at -160 to win 1 unit.
Bet: Winnipeg Jets -160
The Coyotes are over the hump of their 14-game road trip, but they’ve still got five games to go before they return home to Mullet Arena. They’ve won four out of nine games so far, surprisingly, which is the same amount that the Wild have won in their last nine. I’m not very high on the Minnesota, but the odds on the Coyotes aren’t big enough to justify betting on them. Marc-Andre Fleury and Karel Vejmelka are expected to start in goal for their respective clubs, and if that’s the case, the Wild should be priced around -240. That represents a 70 percent chance of winning the game. It might be a little high, too, as there’s a chance my model isn’t capturing Arizona’s true talent now that they’ve got Nick Schmaltz and Jakob Chychrun back in the lineup.
One of the first bets that I made was on the Seattle Kraken in their season opening game against the Ducks in Anaheim. The odds were +110. They had a two-goal lead but lost in overtime. Now, two months later, they’re back in Anaheim carrying a -170 price tag. In other words, it looks like I was onto something, but unfortunately, I couldn’t cash in on my edge at that time, and the market has caught up, and then some. According to my NHL betting model, the Kraken should be priced somewhere between -175 and -190, depending on who starts in goal, which means I can’t justify betting on the Kraken at this point. Seattle has been dipping a bit lately, falling to the middle of the pack in expected goals over the last few weeks, but the Ducks are as bad as they’ve ever been and don’t look to be improving. If Martin Jones gets the nod, I’ll consider a bet on the Kraken, even if the Ducks haven’t announced their starter, because no team has allowed more goals per 60 minutes this season.
Unfortunately, for me, and anybody that tailed, the Canucks picked up an easy win in Vegas on Saturday, and as a result, they’ll likely be a trendy pick on Sunday. I wouldn’t look past the Sharks, though, as my model suggests that this game is a coin flip. San Jose is not a good hockey team, but neither is Vancouver. Both teams are hot offensively, with Vancouver ranking second in goal scoring in November and San Jose ranking ninth, but as good as they are on offense, they’re arguably worse on defense. There isn’t much separating these two teams as far as their underlying metrics go, and assuming James Reimer gets the start for the Sharks, the home team shouldn’t be priced any worse than -103.
Even if I wanted to bet on the Kings on Sunday, it’s not going to happen until they announce a starting goaltender, as the market will likely move toward Ottawa if Cal Petersen starts instead of Jonathan Quick. It might not be that big of a move, considering that the Kings aren’t a big favorite to begin with, but I’ve been on the wrong side of things a few too many times this season and I’m trying to be a little more careful. The gap between these two teams doesn’t seem to be as big as it would have been had they played a few weeks ago, but the Kings are still the superior team, nonetheless. Ottawa is a bottom-10 team defensively, and even though goaltender Cam Talbot has been good, the Senators have only won two out of his seven starts. My NHL betting model suggests that Los Angeles should be priced around -160 if Quick gets the nod, so I might consider betting on them if things work out that way.
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