NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Friday, November 25th

November 25, 2022 06:54 AM
USATSI_19481089
The Boston Bruins are looking for their 12th win in a row at home on Friday when the Carolina Hurricanes comes to town.

Welcome to VSiN’s NHL Bets page. Your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. Read on for odds, predictions and best bets for November 25th. I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving. Friday is loaded with 14 games and plenty of betting opportunities. However, with many of the teams that are playing on Friday scheduled to play again on Saturday, handicapping today's best bets might be a little tricky.

NHL Schedule for November 25th and 26th:

Rest Away Date Home Rest

1

NJD

2022-11-25

BUF

3/4

1

STL

2022-11-25

TBL

3

3/4

MTL

2022-11-25

CHI

1

2

LAK

2022-11-25

SJS

1

1

CAR

2022-11-25

BOS

1

1

COL

2022-11-25

NSH

1

1

TOR

2022-11-25

MIN

1

1

CGY

2022-11-25

WSH

1

1

OTT

2022-11-25

ANA

1

1

PIT

2022-11-25

PHI

1

1

ARI

2022-11-25

DET

1

1

NYI

2022-11-25

CBJ

1

1

SEA

2022-11-25

VGK

1

1

WPG

2022-11-25

DAL

1

2

EDM

2022-11-26

NYR

2

0

STL

2022-11-26

FLA

2

2

VAN

2022-11-26

VGK

0

0

CGY

2022-11-26

CAR

0

0

TOR

2022-11-26

PIT

0

0

WSH

2022-11-26

NJD

0

0

PHI

2022-11-26

NYI

0

0

CBJ

2022-11-26

NSH

0

0

DAL

2022-11-26

COL

0

NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Friday, November 25th

Thursday was a day off due to the holiday, and that couldn’t have come at a better for me, as I went 0-3 on Wednesday and hit my lowest point of the season. I’ve been in this situation before (last season was worse) and I dug myself out, but I’ve got some things to figure out. I was successful for a long time, doing things a certain way, but maybe it’s time to re-examine my process. But, in the meantime, let’s try to bounce back, shall we? I have one bet to kick things off, but more will likely filter in as the day goes on and teams announce their starting goaltenders.

Friday’s Bets: Boston Bruins -150

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

Wins: 31

Losses: 35

Units Won: -3.87 units

ROI: -8.1 percent

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

Carolina Hurricanes (+130) at Boston Bruins (-150)

Bet: Boston Bruins -150

Risk: 1.5 units To Win: 1 unit

Carolina’s offense wasn’t all that special to begin with, ranking 19th in the month of October, but they’ve hit a new low over the last few weeks, as only the Blackhawks and Flyers have scored goals at a lower rate. This team will improve in that regard, but it remains to be seen whether that will happen before or after Teuvo Teravainen and Max Pacioretty return from injury. Both players have been skating, but there’s still no timetable on their return. The same goes for starting goaltender Frederik Andersen, who hasn’t played since November 6th.

That’s good news for the Bruins, who are not only the best team in the NHL right now, but the best home team. Boston has an 11-0 record at home this season. Overall, they’ve played some weak teams, but the ease at which they have beaten those teams (45-18 combined score) says a lot. Boston is the top offensive team in the league, and they’ve scored four goals or more in nine out of 11 games at home and 65 percent overall. Carolina has great team defense, but Boston is better, and goaltender Linus Ullmark is currently playing at an elite level.

The Hurricanes will travel home to host the Flames on Saturday, so it’s unclear who head coach Rod Brind ’Amour will start in goal. Rookie Pyotr Kochetkov has been good in a small sample, but he’s started the last three games and Antti Raanta hasn’t played since November 17th. If the Hurricanes weren’t playing on Saturday, it wouldn’t be so tough to figure out. Raanta would start. But since Kochetkov must start one of the two games, it could be this one. Raanta was supposed to start on Wednesday, but he was banged up during the morning skate. He was back on the ice on Thursday, though, and is expected to play on either Friday or Saturday.

I do expect Bruins’ head coach Jim Montgomery to go back to Ullmark, though. He’s been resting for three days, and he’ll have three more days off following this game. This is not a good matchup for the Hurricanes in their current state, and therefore, I’m betting on the Bruins to win the game at -150 to win 1 unit. I might decide to increase the size of my bet later if the Raanta is confirmed as the starting goaltender, but that will be dependent on the odds.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-225) at Philadelphia Flyers (+200)

Bet: Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 +115

Risk: 0.5 units To Win: 0.575 units

Carter Hart was never going to be able to save the Flyers, and he’s been average over his last six starts, so we might be in the clear. Hart was winning games almost singlehandedly throughout the first month of the season, but the Flyers are now on the verge of losing their ninth game in a row and their goaltending has been horrendous. Philadelphia has allowed at least four goals in seven of their eight losses, and they rank dead last one offense. Pittsburgh hasn’t been operating all that smoothly, but with six wins in their last eight games, including four in a row, they’ve got some confidence heading into the Battle of Pennsylvania (do people call it that?).

The Penguins rank sixth on offense in all situations and, unlike the Flyers, their peripherals are strong. They also aren’t missing a handful of key forwards like the Flyers are, either. The Penguins have won six out of their last eight games and they’ve won by a margin of two goals or more in five out of their last six road games. It’s unclear who will start in goal for the Penguins, but they shouldn’t be priced any lower than -250, as their chances of winning the game are around 71.5 percent if Hart and Jarry are the starting goaltenders. Casey DeSmith is coming back from a minor injury, and in general, it’s tougher to guess which goaltender head coach Mike Sullivan will choose to go with. The Penguins host the Maple Leafs at home on Saturday.

Philadelphia also plays on Saturday, in New York against the Islanders, but I’m going to assume that the head coach John Tortorella will start his star goaltender versus his team’s biggest rival. Backup Felix Sandstrom started the last game for the Flyers, and part of me wonders if Hart could start on back-to-back days. He’s had three days off and the team will get two days off before facing the Islanders again, so who knows?

Update: Carter Hart and Tristan Jarry are the starting goaltenders, and while I can justify betting on the Penguins to win at -225 (because I believe the line should be closer to -250) I'm going to place a small bet on them to cover the puck line.

Calgary Flames (-120) at Washington Capitals (EVEN)

Washington will get forward T.J. Oshie back in the lineup on Friday, and defender Dmitry Orlov is inching closer and could also play. They’ll likely be outmatched by the Flames, regardless, but both teams play again on Saturday and there’s a wide range of probabilities based on which goaltenders end up starting. The Flames could be priced as high as -130, if Calgary’s starter, Jacob Markstrom, faces off against Washington’s backup, Charlie Lindgren. This game could also be priced like a coin flip if Flames’ backup, Dan Vladar, starts against Capitals’ starter, Darcy Kuemper.

Montreal Canadiens (EVEN) at Chicago Blackhawks (-120)

This is the only game in which the teams have confirmed the starting goaltenders, as Samuel Montembeault and Arvid Soderblom will go head-to-head. Montembeault has been surprisingly good for the Canadiens, posting a .922 save percentage in seven starts. Soderblom has posted decent numbers as well, but he’s been exposed over the last couple of games. I don’t expect either goaltender to be good long term, though. The Blackhawks have lost five games in a row, albeit against some of the best teams in the league, but they’re 6-13 straight up on the season and Montreal is technically a winning hockey club. My model sees the Canadiens as a slightly favorite and, therefore, I can justify placing a small bet on them at +105. However, there’s not enough value to justify betting on them at even money given that I’ve been burned betting on the Canadiens and against the Blackhawks.

Los Angeles Kings (-140) at San Jose Sharks (+120)

James Reimer wasn’t available on Wednesday, but he might return to the crease on Friday. The Sharks lost to the Kraken 8-5, but they did continue their run as one of the hottest offensive teams in the NHL. I didn’t think I’d be saying that a few weeks ago. No team scored fewer goals than San Jose did in October (11 games) but only six teams have scored more goals than the Sharks so far in November (also 11 games). Coincidentally, the Kings went from being the fourth best offensive team in October, to being the ninth-worst offensive team in November.

Jonathan Quick is expected be in goal for the Kings after getting six days off, but I’m going to try not to guess about who Todd McLellan will start. The market seemingly moves against the Kings whenever backup Cal Petersen gets the nod, so it seems like it’s best to wait at this point. The Kings chances of winning the game will be about 61 percent (-155). However, if Quick ends up facing off against backup Kaapo Kahkonen ends up in goal for San Jose, but if the goaltending matchup is Quick and Reimer, the Kings’ chances drop about three percent.

Arizona Coyotes (+170) at Detroit Red Wings (-200)

Arizona snapped a four-game losing streak by shutting out the Hurricanes in Carolina on Wednesday, and while I wouldn’t expect that to become the norm, I do think there are some notes that are worth passing along. First, forward Nick Schmaltz and defender Jakob Chychrun, two of the team’s best players, have returned from injury. Getting those two players back in the lineup improve the Coyotes’ chances of winning a given game, but their chances of winning this game will really improve if the Wings call upon backup goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic, who ranks second-last in goals saved above expected.

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