NHL Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and best bets for Monday, March 13th
After a busy weekend where all 32 teams were in action, the NHL returns with a three-game card for Monday. Things will pick up again on Tuesday, though, so be sure to be on the lookout for the next episode of the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast for a full betting breakdown.
Today’s NHL Schedule
There are just six teams in action on Monday.
Today’s NHL Odds
Here are the latest odds for Monday’s games from DraftKings Sportsbook. Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board!
- Colorado Avalanche (-250) at Montreal Canadiens (+210)
- Buffalo Sabres (+210) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-250)
- Dallas Stars (-125) at Seattle Kraken (+105)
Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs
Buffalo’s playoff hopes are dwindling as they get set to visit the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Monday. Buffalo is 0-2 against Toronto this season, losing by a combined scored of 11-5 and their record against the top 17 teams in the league is 14-24 year-to-date.
To make matters worse, the Sabres are set to play Monday’s game without their top defensive pairing. According to Matthew Fairburn of The Athletic, both Rasmus Dahlin (day-to-day) and Mattias Samuelsson are out due to injuries.
Dahlin is the Sabres top player, and the team’s expected win rate drops off significantly when he’s not in the lineup, but don’t underestimate the loss of Samuelsson. The Sabres are 4-13 straight up without the veteran defenseman this season.
It’s not all bad news, as forward Alex Tuch is expected to return to the Sabres’ lineup as early as Monday, but even adding a player of his stature to the lineup isn’t going to make up for the holes on defense.
Toronto ranks as the fifth-best team in expected goals percentage since the start of February while Buffalo ranks 28th. The Sabres have allowed more goals per 60 minutes than any other team during that time, too, which sounds about right given that only Anaheim was worse in expected goals against per 60 minutes.
But, from a betting perspective, there’s nothing egregious about the game lines i.e., the Maple Leafs don’t stand out as a good bet.
I am betting on John Tavares to score an anytime goal at +125, though. The captain leads the Maple Leafs in goals, expected goals, and shots since Feb. 1st. Tavares was getting a lot less ice time than he was used to after the Maple Leafs acquired Ryan O’Reilly but with the latter on the shelf due to injury, we don’t have to worry as much about his minutes getting cut down.
Bet: John Tavares (Anytime Goal) +125 for ½ unit
All bets tracked via third part app Betstamp.
Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens
Montreal doesn’t have much of a chance to snap their six-game losing streak, but the Canadiens have been hanging around and it’s worth noting that all six games were decided by one goal. Colorado should blow them out on Monday, but things haven’t gone as expected for the defending Stanley Cup champions this season and they’re more susceptible to ending up in close games against weak teams than they were before.
Colorado dominated Arizona in their most recent game with a 73 percent share of the shot attempts, but expected goals were just 53 percent in the Avalanches’ favor and they needed overtime to win the game. Of course, they also dismantled the San Jose Sharks by a score of 7-0 not too long ago, but the Canadiens have decent goaltending, if nothing else.
Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken
After a five-game slide, the Stars have won six of their last eight, including Saturday’s overtime victory in Seattle. Dallas has won the first two games of a six-game road trip and have one more game against the Kraken before heading to Western Canada to visit the Canucks, Oilers, and Flames.
Dallas didn’t control the game, but they did generate more quality scoring chances than Seattle and it resulted in a 58.3 expected goals percentage for the former. The Kraken don’t allow many shots, but they often seem reluctant to take chances themselves.
The Stars generate a lot of shots and chances, so while Seattle can keep a game close by trying to limit their opponent’s offense, it’s tough to beat a team with great goaltending if you don’t take some chances. Seattle only generated two expected goals against the Stars on Saturday. It’ll be interesting to see if they make any adjustments.