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NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Monday, November 21st
Monday: The week of Thanksgiving is always a bit of a weird one in the NHL. There are no games on Thursday, and as a result, schedule makers are treating us to a big card on Monday.
Monday’s Bets: Vegas Golden Knights -140 (see write up for bet amounts)
Wins: 30 Losses: 31 Units Won: -0.72 units ROI: -1.5 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Vegas Golden Knights (-140) at Vancouver Canucks (+120)
Bet: Vegas Golden Knights -140 Risk: 1.4 units To Win: 1 unit
Vegas fell to Oilers in overtime on Saturday in Edmonton. Backup goaltender Adin Hill started for the Golden Knights. That means starter Logan Thompson will be fresh to start on Sunday in Vancouver. Thompson ranks 11th in goals saved above expected (+4.95) and he has the fifth-best save percentage among goaltenders that have played at least 10 games. Canucks’ goaltender Thatcher Demko ranks last in goals saved above expected (-8.5) and he has the third-worst save percentage among goaltenders that have played at least 10 games. Only two teams (Columbus and Anaheim) have allowed more goals on a per 60-minute basis than Vancouver has this season. Vegas ranks fourth on defense. Vancouver is a competent offensive team, but so is Vegas. And unlike the Canucks, the Golden Knights have strong peripherals. Both teams rank among the top-10 teams in goals, but Vegas grades out as a top-10 team by expected goals while Vancouver ranks 22nd. Only the Devils, Bruins and Hurricanes have owned a larger share of expected goals in all situations. My NHL betting model suggest the road team will win the game approximately 61 percent of the time, and that means that their odds should be -157. The Golden Knights have lost three out of their last four games, but they’re a good bet to get back in the win column on Monday.
Edmonton Oilers (+130) at New Jersey Devils (-150)
I don’t have a whole lot of interest in this game from a betting perspective, as my NHL betting model is in line with the market. The Devils will win the game about 60 percent of the time IF the Oilers turn to Jack Campbell. Edmonton’s chances of winning would be much better if they were to go back to Stuart Skinner. Campbell has been a huge disappointment for the Oilers, who signed him with the hopes that he could provide the team with adequate goaltending, but he’s done anything but. He currently grades out as the fourth-worst goaltender in goals saved above expected (-7.8) and save percentage (.873) in the NHL. The Oilers should absolutely start Skinner in this game, and in most of the games going forward.
Update: Stuart Skinner will start in goal for the Oilers. Vitek Vanecek is expected to start for New Jersey.
Boston Bruins (-110) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-110)
One of these teams will have their winning streak snapped on Monday. The Bruins have won six in a row, while the Lightning have rattled off four consecutive wins, and my NHL betting model’s estimate suggests that the Bruins will win this game more often than the Lightning. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been good this season (+3.5 goals saved above expected) but Linus Ullmark (+8.4 goals saved above expected) is playing like a Vezina Trophy front runner. Vasilevskiy still can be the best goaltender in the world in a game, but Ullmark has posted a .936 save percentage in 14 games, which ranks first among starting goaltenders. Boston is the second-best team by expected goals and they have the best goal differential in the NHL by a mile. My NHL betting model estimates that they will win the game approximately 52.5 percent of the time.
Update: Linus Ullmark will start for Boston. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start for Tampa Bay.
Colorado Avalanche (-110) at Dallas Stars (-110)
Colorado has been on a roll as of late, winning six of their last seven games. Their schedule has been light, though, and the Stars should provide them with a tough test. However, with forward Roope Hintz questionable to play on Monday, the home team’s chances of winning the game might not be as good as my model is suggesting. Hintz is the team’s second leading scorer (22 points in 17 games) and the team’s chances of winning will drop below 50 percent if he isn’t able to play.
Update: As expected, Jake Oettinger will start in goal for Dallas. Forward Roope Hintz will be a game-time decision.
Calgary Flames (-200) at Philadelphia Flyers (+175)
The Flames have seemingly started to turn things around, but bettors should be weary of betting on them as big favorites in Philadelphia on Monday. Don’t get me wrong, the Flames will likely make easy work out of the Flyers and win the game but given that they’re in the middle of a six-game road trip and starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom has played the last four games, it wouldn’t surprise me if backup Dan Vladar started on Monday. Vladar hasn’t played since November 10th and head coach Daryll Sutter will sometimes play his backup goaltender multiple times on a long road trip. Markstrom hasn’t been good this season, but Vladar has been worse, and his ceiling isn’t as high.
Update: Carter Hart will start for Philadelphia. Jacob Markstrom is expected to start for Calgary but the team has not made an announcement.
Ottawa Senators (-110) at San Jose Sharks (-110)
The only reason I’m mentioning this game is because I think the Senators will be a trendy pick on Monday and I don’t see why. If backup goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen starts for the Sharks, the Senators should be priced around -110, according to my model, but if James Reimer is in goal, the Sharks should be a small favorite. Hopefully by now, bettors have realized that the Senators are not a good hockey team. Of course, San Jose isn’t either, but the hockey world doesn’t have an infatuation with them like they do for Ottawa.
Arizona Coyotes (+200) at Nashville Predators (-250)
Coyotes’ defender Jakob Chychrun is expected to make his season debut on Monday. Forward Nick Schmaltz is also expected to return to action. It’s not clear which goaltender will start in goal, but the Coyotes are getting two impact players back in the lineup and that. Arizona’s chances of winning the game have improved, but my NHL betting model doesn’t see value in betting the Coyotes at +200. Even if the Predators start backup goaltender Kevin Lankinen, who hasn’t played since November 10th, they still should win the game about 67.7 percent of the time.
Update: Juuse Saros will start for Nashville.
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