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Market Report for Friday, November 4th
Recap: Thursday cost me one unit. Seattle, Vegas and Carolina got the job done, but the Flames didn’t show up for their game against the Predators and the Kings lost in overtime despite dominating the Blackhawks in the game.
Wins: 23 Losses: 21 Units Won: %plussign% 2.26 units ROI: 5.3 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Today: We’ve got a couple of mismatches in the NHL on Friday.
Today’s Bets: There are no bets currently.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Columbus Blue Jackets (+165) at Carolina Hurricanes (-195)
The Sabres took money overnight, and I can understand why, but I don’t agree with the market’s assessment of this game. My model prices the Hurricanes at -180, so I don’t believe there was ever any value in betting the Sabres. Buffalo is on the come up, but the Canes are still top-tier team and Antti Raanta is a solid backup goaltender. Or at least he has been in the past. There could be a correction coming for these two teams, too. Right now, the Sabres are outperforming expected goals. The Hurricanes are underperforming. However, if you look at the Sabres schedule so far this season, they’ve played a lot of bad teams and bad goaltenders, and I believe that inflates their scoring rates. Buffalo ranks second in the league on offense right now, but I would be surprised if they finished in the top-10, let alone the top-five in goals. Carolina is an elite team in just about every facet of the game, and Buffalo still has a long way to go. Of course, a strong performance against Carolina will improve their rating.
Columbus Blue Jackets (+210) at Colorado Avalanche (-250)
This game is not being played in Colorado. It’s being played in Finland as part of the NHL Global Series, so the Avalanche don’t have home-ice advantage. Otherwise, they’d be a much bigger favorite. My model prices this game at -255 in favor of the Avalanche, assuming Val Nichushkin is back in the lineup, but given that the Avalanche are sitting around -250, I don’t see much of a reason to monitor it. The Avalanche have been average offensively this season, and while that won’t likely be the case against the Blue Jackets, who are arguably the worst defensive team in the league, their scoring woes are starting to be reflected in my daily projections. In other words, it’s getting harder and harder to bet on this team. Maybe back-to-back games against a bad team will get them going in the right direction.
Notes: Blue Jackets’ forward Boone Jenner is expected to play after missing practice due to an illness. Avalanche forward Val Nichushkin was back at practice on Wednesday. Alex Georgiev and Elvis Merzlikins are confirmed to start in goal for their respective clubs.
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