Buffalo hasn’t qualified for the playoffs since 2011 and they were not projected to qualify for the playoffs in 2022-23. The Sabres regular season point total was set at 77.5 prior to the season, but with 56 points in 50 games, the Sabres are projected to soar over that mark. Now, they find themselves on the cusp of ending their playoff drought.
The Sabres is currently one point back of the Pittsburgh Penguins, who occupy the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, and four points back of the Washington Capitals. On top of that, the Sabres are being chased closely by the Panthers and Islanders, but they do have two games in hand on those teams.
Eastern Conference Wild Card Race as of Feb. 3rd:
|
Pos
|
Team
|
Games Played
|
Points
|
|
1
|
Capitals
|
53
|
60
|
|
2
|
Penguins
|
49
|
57
|
|
3
|
Sabres
|
50
|
56
|
|
4
|
Islanders
|
52
|
55
|
|
5
|
Panthers
|
52
|
54
|
By my estimation, Buffalo will qualify for the playoffs about 41 percent of the time, and that means their odds should be around +145. So, there is certainly value in betting the Sabres at +300, but just to be clear: It’s a bet that will lose more often than it will win. Buffalo’s 19 regulation wins are the fewest of the five teams, which means they down own a tiebreaker and will miss the playoffs more than 50 percent of the time.
It’s also worth mentioning that my forecast is optimistic compared to the likes of Moneypuck.com, who has the Sabres’ chances of making the playoffs listed at 38.2 percent, and Dom Luszcyszyn at The Athletic, who has them making the playoffs just 14 percent of the time.
My prediction isn’t unreasonable, by any means, but the Sabres do have a tough remaining schedule and goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who has just 34 NHL games under his belt, is going to be put to the test. It’s going to be up to top players like Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin to lead the way.
Dahlin has a real chance to win the Norris Trophy if the Sabres make the playoffs (he could still get nominated regardless) and if you like the Sabres to make the playoffs at +300, you ought to consider betting on Dahlin to be named the NHL’s best defenseman at +500. The 22-year-old is the second-highest scoring defenseman with 55 points in 49 games.
Check out this breakdown of the top contenders for the Norris Trophy.