NHL schedule tendencies emerging

By Steve Makinen  (Point Spread Weekly) 

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As we come out of the NHL All-Star break and forge toward the postseason, it’s a good time to take stock of some of the most notable scheduling tendencies emerging in the first half of the season. The idea is to recognize these trends, judge them for their merits and then take those we believe in and apply them to the rest of the season to create new profit opportunities. 

I have put together a group of 10 of the best and worst performance records that have developed concerning schedules. These come right off the NHL Team Reports pages shown in “Point Spread Weekly.” I then cross-referenced these games against the teams’ remaining schedules to show where bettors can take advantage of the findings, assuming they believe in the angles and see them continuing. 

For each angle, I list the team with the notable performance trend, the record of that trend, the average score of those games, an explanation and then the games for which the trend would be in play the rest of the way.

ANAHEIM

Trend: 1 day’s rest: 9-17-4, $1391, Average score: 2.4-3.1

Analysis: The Ducks have struggled in the most common rest situation, going just 9-17-4 for -13.9 units in games on a single day of rest. That is an ROI of -46.3%.

Remaining games:

1/29/2020 - vs. Arizona Coyotes

1/31/2020 - vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

2/6/2020 - at Montreal Canadiens

2/9/2020 - at Buffalo Sabres

2/11/2020 - vs. St. Louis Blues

2/13/2020 - vs. Calgary Flames

2/19/2020 - vs. Florida Panthers

2/21/2020 - vs. Colorado Avalanche

2/23/2020 - vs. Vegas Golden Knights

2/25/2020 - vs. Edmonton Oilers

3/1/2020 - vs. New Jersey Devils

3/3/2020 - at Chicago Blackhawks

3/6/2020 - vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

3/8/2020 - vs. Minnesota Wild

3/10/2020 - vs. Ottawa Senators

3/20/2020 - vs. Vancouver Canucks

3/25/2020 - at Calgary Flames

4/3/2020 - vs. Los Angeles Kings

ARIZONA

Trend: 2 days’ rest: 9-1-0, $814, Average score: 3.5-2.0

Analysis: If only the Coyotes were given two full days off between every game, they’d find themselves a lot higher than their current No. 7 spot in the West.

Remaining games:

2/4/2020 - vs. Edmonton Oilers

2/25/2020 - vs. Florida Panthers

3/9/2020 - at Winnipeg Jets

3/12/2020 - vs. Vancouver Canucks

3/25/2020 - at Vegas Golden Knights

3/28/2020 - vs. Nashville Predators

CAROLINA

Trend: Nonconference: 14-3-2, $707, Average score: 3.1-1.7

Analysis: It’s noteworthy that Carolina’s best hockey in 2019-20 has come against the West. What is particularly impressive is the 1.7 goals allowed per game.

Remaining games:

1/31/2020 - vs. Vegas Golden Knights

2/2/2020 - vs. Vancouver Canucks

2/4/2020 - at St. Louis Blues

2/6/2020 - at Arizona Coyotes

2/8/2020 - at Vegas Golden Knights

2/11/2020 - at Dallas Stars

2/16/2020 - vs. Edmonton Oilers

2/18/2020 - at Nashville Predators

2/25/2020 - vs. Dallas Stars

2/28/2020 - vs. Colorado Avalanche

3/19/2020 - vs. St. Louis Blues

CHICAGO

Trend: 0 days’ rest: 9-1-0, $926, Average score: 4.0-2.3

Analysis: This is an interesting trend in that playing the second of back-to-back games is supposed to be one of the more difficult NHL scheduling spots.

Remaining games:

2/5/2020 - vs. Boston Bruins

2/12/2020 - at Vancouver Canucks

2/16/2020 - at Winnipeg Jets

3/6/2020 - at Detroit Red Wings

3/14/2020 - at Washington Capitals

3/22/2020 - vs. Nashville Predators

DETROIT

Trend: On road: 4-19-2, $1365, Average score: 2.1-4.3

Analysis: The Red Wings have been brutally bad on the road this season. Pay special attention to the game Feb. 16 at Pittsburgh, as it will be a fourth road game in six days, a spot in which virtually no price will be high enough.

Remaining games:

1/31/2020 - at New York Rangers

2/6/2020 - at Buffalo Sabres

2/7/2020 - at Columbus Blue Jackets

2/11/2020 - at Buffalo Sabres

2/13/2020 - at New Jersey Devils

2/15/2020 - at Boston Bruins

2/16/2020 - at Pittsburgh Penguins

2/21/2020 - at New York Islanders

2/29/2020 - at Ottawa Senators

3/12/2020 - at Washington Capitals

3/14/2020 - at Tampa Bay Lightning

3/20/2020 - at Arizona Coyotes

3/21/2020 - at Vegas Golden Knights

3/24/2020 - at Boston Bruins

3/31/2020 - at St. Louis Blues

4/2/2020 - at Toronto Maple Leafs

FLORIDA

Trend: Nonconference: 13-3-1 O/U, $970 Average score: 4.1-3.5

Analysis: The Panthers’ games against the West this season have been remarkably high-scoring, producing 7.6 GPG on average. See if the trend continues and then hit the games below with Over wagers if it does.

Remaining games:

2/6/2020 - vs. Vegas Golden Knights

2/15/2020 - vs. Edmonton Oilers

2/17/2020 - at San Jose Sharks

2/19/2020 - at Anaheim Ducks

2/20/2020 - at Los Angeles Kings

2/22/2020 - at Vegas Golden Knights

2/25/2020 - at Arizona Coyotes

2/29/2020 - vs. Chicago Blackhawks

3/1/2020 - vs. Calgary Flames

3/10/2020 - at St. Louis Blues

3/12/2020 - at Dallas Stars

3/16/2020 - at Detroit Red Wings

3/17/2020 - at Winnipeg Jets

3/21/2020 - vs. St. Louis Blues

LOS ANGELES

Trend: 1 day’s rest: 6-18-4, $1440, Average score: 1.9-3.1

Analysis: The Kings are another team that has struggled in the most basic of all scheduling scenarios, a good reason they are sitting at the bottom of the West standings.

Remaining games:

2/1/2020 - vs. Anaheim Ducks

2/6/2020 - at New York Islanders

2/8/2020 - at New Jersey Devils

2/20/2020 - vs. Florida Panthers

2/22/2020 - vs. Colorado Avalanche

3/7/2020 - vs. Minnesota Wild

3/9/2020 - vs. Colorado Avalanche

3/11/2020 - vs. Ottawa Senators

3/19/2020 - vs. Boston Bruins

3/21/2020 - vs. Vancouver Canucks

3/24/2020 - at Dallas Stars

3/26/2020 - at Nashville Predators

3/29/2020 - at Chicago Blackhawks

3/31/2020 - vs. San Jose Sharks

PITTSBURGH

Trend: 1 day’s rest: 15-4-1, $1004, Average score: 3.8-3.0

Analysis: One-day rest scenarios have been a strength for the Penguins, producing an ROI of better than 50% this season.

Remaining games:

2/2/2020 - at Washington Capitals

2/8/2020 - at Florida Panthers

2/16/2020 - vs. Detroit Red Wings

2/18/2020 - vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

2/20/2020 - at Toronto Maple Leafs

2/22/2020 - vs. Buffalo Sabres

2/28/2020 - at Anaheim Ducks

3/5/2020 - at Buffalo Sabres

3/7/2020 - vs. Washington Capitals

3/10/2020 - at New Jersey Devils

3/12/2020 - at Columbus Blue Jackets

3/14/2020 - at Carolina Hurricanes

3/20/2020 - vs. New York Rangers

3/22/2020 - vs. Washington Capitals

3/24/2020 - vs. Carolina Hurricanes

3/31/2020 - vs. New Jersey Devils

4/2/2020 - vs. New York Rangers

4/4/2020 - at Ottawa Senators

ST. LOUIS

Trend: Conference: 21-5-4, $1041, Average score: 3.3-2.4

Analysis: St. Louis is atop the West in large part because of its success against the West.

Remaining games:

1/31/2020 - at Edmonton Oilers

2/1/2020 - at Winnipeg Jets

2/6/2020 - vs. Winnipeg Jets

2/8/2020 - vs. Dallas Stars

2/11/2020 - at Anaheim Ducks

2/13/2020 - at Vegas Golden Knights

2/15/2020 - vs. Nashville Predators

2/16/2020 - at Nashville Predators

2/20/2020 - vs. Arizona Coyotes

2/21/2020 - at Dallas Stars

2/23/2020 - at Minnesota Wild

2/25/2020 - vs. Chicago Blackhawks

2/29/2020 - vs. Dallas Stars

3/13/2020 - vs. San Jose Sharks

3/27/2020 - vs. Los Angeles Kings

3/29/2020 - vs. Minnesota Wild

3/31/2020 - vs. Detroit Red Wings

4/4/2020 - at Colorado Avalanche

TAMPA BAY

Trend: 3 + days’ rest: 6-0-0, $600, Average score: 5.3-2.7

Analysis: A rested Lightning team has been amazing, particularly offensively, where it has scored 5.3 GPG in games played on three or more days’ rest.

Remaining game:

3/25/2020 - vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

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