NHL point projections can change quickly

Now that the NHL season is well underway, bank on receiving updated forecasts every week at VSiN. Projections are based on thousands of simulations, taking into account what has already happened and looking to the future to predict what is most likely to happen in the remaining games. Note the date when the projections were updated and consider that when placing futures wagers this week. These projections were updated as of Monday.

Just Like Hockey, Projections Are Fluid

Playoff chances and division odds are constantly changing, sometimes in mere minutes. One such swing took place in Winnipeg over the weekend. The Jets’ playoff chances sat at about 63% heading into their game against the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday, and after Blake Wheeler put the Jets ahead by one goal with less than five minutes to go, Evolving Hockey estimated they would win 94% of the time. 

However, the Oilers tied it at 16:55 of the third period and won it on Leon Draisaitl’s buzzer-beater at 19:59. The Jets would have improved their playoff chances to 68%, but instead they dropped to 58%. Things change fast. Look how quickly the Montreal Canadiens have improved their odds of winning the North Division. Keep that in mind when looking for value in futures markets.

Don’t Place A Futures Bet Without Shopping Around

Line shopping is always important but even more so when betting futures, as great disparity can be found between the odds at one shop and another. Bettors who used the 2021 NHL Betting Guide as intended and sought out the best odds are likely sitting on some great value at the moment. A lot of the value was found at some of the more obscure sportsbooks, and there’s probably an even better chance of finding rogue prices throughout the season. 

Line shopping will ensure that when you do cash a winning futures ticket, it will help soften the blow of the ones that don’t make it all the way. It won’t always work out, of course. For example, the Vegas Golden Knights are on the cusp of being projected to go over even some of the highest regular-season point totals available at sportsbooks before the season. However, if a bettor shopped around, he might have found at least one shop that hung 78.5, and bettors who were able to lay -110 on the Under at that number are in much better position. Line shopping can also be the difference in winning and losing a bet.

Take The Bruins To Win The East

 

In the bubble last season, a lot was made of the lack of production from Boston’s top skaters. The same crowd was peddling that narrative again as the season got underway and the Bruins once again struggled to generate offense through the first three games, losing two. However, the Bruins’ underlying metrics are that of a dominant team, and it now looks like they will be getting superstar sniper David Pastrnak back soon. Boston is still available at + 275 to win the East Division at DraftKings, and by my estimation, their odds should be closer to + 125. They might not be in first place at the moment, but this is the Bruins’ division to lose. According to Evolving Hockey, the Bruins have owned about 56% of the expected goals. They’ve already handled the Flyers twice.

Schedule Update

The Central Division has been impacted by postponements due to COVID-19. As a result, the schedule now calls for:

— Florida to play remaining 54 games in 102 days

— Dallas to play remaining 54 games in 104 days

— Carolina to play remaining 53 games in 100 days

— Tampa Bay to play remaining 52 games in 102 days

Here are the games that had been rescheduled as of Monday:

— Dallas at Florida: Changed from Jan. 14 to Feb. 22

— Dallas at Florida: Changed from Jan. 15 to May 3

— Dallas at Tampa Bay: Changed from Jan. 17 to May 4

— Dallas at Tampa Bay: Changed from Jan. 19 to May 10

— Florida at Detroit: Changed from Feb. 21 to Feb. 20

— Dallas at Florida: Changed from Feb. 23 to Feb. 24

— Buffalo at Pittsburgh: Changed from March 27 to March 26

— Boston at Washington: Changed from April 11 to April 10

— Pittsburgh at Buffalo: Changed from April 20 to April 19

— Florida at Tampa Bay: Changed from May 4 to March 16

— Carolina at Nashville: Changed from Jan. 19 to March 2

— Florida at Carolina: Changed from Jan. 21 to Feb. 17

— Florida at Carolina: Changed from Jan. 23 to March 7

— Tampa Bay at Carolina: Changed from Jan. 26 to Feb. 22

— Columbus at Carolina: Changed from Feb. 16 to Feb. 15

— Florida at Tampa Bay: Changed from Feb. 16 to Feb. 15

— Carolina at Tampa Bay: Changed from Feb. 22 to Feb. 24

The schedule found in the 2021 NHL Betting Guide has been updated. “Tired spots” are highlighted.

Key

2/2: two games in two days

3/4: three games in four days

4/6: four games in six days

5/7: five games in seven days

6/9: six games in nine days

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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