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NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Sunday, November 20th
Sunday: All four teams were in action on Saturday and Florida, Pittsburgh and Chicago had to travel.
Sunday’s Bets: Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5, +115 (see write up for bet amount)
Wins: 29 Losses: 31 Units Won: -1.29 units ROI: -2.7 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-220) at Chicago Blackhawks (+190)
Bet: Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 (+115) Risk: 0.5 units To Win: 0.575 units
With both Chicago and Pittsburgh having played on Saturday, the market opened earlier this morning and things moved fast, but I can still justify making a small bet on the Penguins to cover the puck line at +115. The Blackhawks are coming off a 6-1 loss to the Boston Bruins in which they were outshot 43-18. They’ve scored two or fewer goals in seven out of their last eight games and they’ve only scored 32 percent of the goals over their last 10 games. No team has scored fewer goals per 60 minutes than Chicago, and although Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t been good, their offense ranks fourth in the league. Goaltender Casey DeSmith has been good, too, and he’s rested heading into Sunday’s game. Arvid Soderblom has been surprisingly good in goal for the Blackhawks, but he hasn’t faced any above average offensive teams, yet this season and the Penguins will be his biggest test yet. Most of Pittsburgh’s recent games have been tilted heavily in their favor. The Penguins have posted the sixth-best expected goals percentage since November 1st. Chicago ranks 32nd in that same category.
Florida Panthers (-250) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+210)
Florida’s roster is full of talent, and the team grades out as one of the best in the league in categories like expected goals and shot attempt percentage. The Panthers aren’t as good on offense as they were in 2021-22, but they’re still dangerous on the attack. Florida has scored at least four goals in seven out of their last 10 games. Goaltending and defense are a big part of hockey, though, and this team lacks in both areas. I mean, even though the ice is usually tilted toward the Panthers, they rank 20th in expected goals against and 22nd in save percentage. Recent losses against the Stars and Flames are a perfect example of the type of hockey that you should expect to see when the Panthers are up against a competent opponent. Of course, the Blue Jackets don’t fit that description, and the Panthers, goaltending issues and all, will likely find a way to win on Sunday.
Even when healthy, the Blue Jackets are one of the worst teams in the league, and they’re nowhere close to being at full strength. Zach Werenski is out for the season. Patrik Laine and Adam Boqvist are expected to be until sometime in December. Jakub Voracek, Jake Bean and starting goaltender Elvis Merzlikins are expected to be out for a little while longer. The Red Wings pounded the Blue Jackets by a score of 6-1 in Columbus on Saturday, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Panthers do something similar. Nothing would surprise me here, though, as the Panthers have laid some stinkers on the road against some bad teams like Chicago, Philadelphia and Arizona. The Panthers will win the game approximately 71 percent (-245) of the time, according to my NHL betting model assuming third-string goaltender Daniil Tarasov is guarding the cage for the home team.
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