NHL Betting Update and Tuesday MLB Sharp Report (4-20)

April 20, 2021 12:55 AM

NHL favorites went 7-1 on Monday night, running their regular season record to 428-257 (62.5%). A $100 bettor taking every favorite would be up roughly $2,100 so far this season. Simply put, it's been a fantastic year for chalk hockey bettors. We've also seen big favorites (-200 or more) crush it, going 92-31 (75%, + 8 units). It's been profitable to bet on favorites off a loss. These teams are 178-96 (65%), up roughly + 26 units. Favorites -150 or more in games with high totals (6 or more) are 99-43 (70%, + 10 units). Favorites with big steam in their favor (20 cents or more) are 47-19 (71%, + 6 units). When both teams facing off are coming off a loss, the favorite has gone 59-27 (69%, + 13 units). 

Now it's on to Tuesday, where we have 16 MLB games, 5 NBA games and 8 NHL games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth.

In the meantime, let's discuss a pair of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

6:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (8-9) at Cleveland Indians (8-7)

This is the series opener between two AL Central rivals. The White Sox just split a four-game series against the Red Sox in Boston, losing yesterday 11-4 as slight -115 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Indians just dropped two of three against the Reds, although they managed to win the series finale 6-3 as -150 road favorites. Tonight the White Sox will start Carlos lefty Rodon (2-0, 0.00), who is making his first start since throwing a no-hitter. The Indians will counter with righty Zach Plesac (1-2, 5.27 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a slight -115 road favorite. The public is all over Chicago with Rodon coming off his no-no, however we've seen the line dip slightly from White Sox -115 to -110. This signals some respected money buying low on Cleveland as a short home dog (+ 105 to + 100). Cleveland has value as a divisional dog, a dog with a line move in their favor and a dog off win. "Sweet Spot" dogs + 140 or less are 66-53 (56%) this season, good for + 23 units and a 20% ROI. Cleveland also has a rest advantage as the Tribe last played on Sunday while the White Sox played yesterday in Boston. The total opened at 8 and pros immediately hit the under, dropping it down to 7.5. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with Chicago 10-7 and Cleveland 10-5. The forecast calls for low 40s and 10 MPH winds blowing in from dead center. The Tribe are 4-1 at home this season. Chicago is 5-6 on the road.

6:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (7-9) at Miami Marlins (7-9)

This Interleague series opener features a pair of teams with identical records looking to get back to .500. The Orioles just took two of three from the Rangers in Texas while the Marlins just took two of three from the Giants at home. Tonight the Orioles give the ball to veteran Matt Harvey (0-1, 5.02 ERA) and the Marlins trot out righty Nick Neidert (0-0, 4.00 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a -139 home favorite. The public is all over the Fish, yet we've seen this line tumble from -139 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Orioles (+ 128 to + 110). Baltimore has value as a dog with a line move and a team receiving 10-cents or more of steam in a non-division game (29-21, 58% this season). Also, road dogs like Baltimore are 70-74 (49%) this season, winning + 22 units with a 15% ROI. Baltimore is 6-5 as a dog this season. The Fish are just 1-4 as a favorite. The Orioles are 6-3 on the road. Miami is 3-6 at home. 

7:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets (7-4) at Chicago Cubs (6-9)

These non-division NL foes are trending in completely opposite directions. The Mets are 5-1 over their last six games while the Cubs are just 2-6 over their last eight. In tonight's series opener under the lights at Wrigley, the Mets start righty Taijuan Walker (0-0, 2.61 ERA) and the Cubs give the ball to veteran Jake Arrieta (2-1, 3.18 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as -135 road favorites. The public is rushing to the window to back the Mets and fade the struggling Cubs. However, despite this lopsided chalk support we've seen New York fall from -125 to -130. Some shops are closer to -125. This signals some sharp action buying low on the Cubs as a plus-money dog (+ 125 to + 120). The Cubs have value as a dog with a line move in their favor and a home dog who made the playoffs the previous year (10% ROI this season). The total is a low 7.5 with heavy under juice (-120). The forecast calls for high 30s and the wind is expected to blow in from right field at 5 MPH. Unders are 120-104 (54%) on the season. The Cubs have been a big under team this season (9-5-1). The over is 6-5 in Mets games. 

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