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NHL betting market report for Sunday, November 13th
Recap: Despite it being their most lacklustre performance of the season so far, the Bruins managed to beat the Sabres 3-1 and cover the puck line. Unfortunately, the Vegas Golden Knights took their foot off the gas after taking a 2-1 lead in their game versus the St. Louis Blues and I gave it all back and then some.
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Sunday’s Bets: Boston Bruins -220 (see write up for bet amounts)
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Vancouver Canucks (+190) at Boston Bruins (-220)
Boston has won their last two games by a score of 3-1 despite falling behind 1-0 early in each game. It’s as much a testament to the team’s ability to crawl out of a deficit as it is to their goaltending. Third-string goaltender Keith Kinkaid earned his first win as a member of the Bruins on Saturday in Buffalo, and stater Linus Ullmark will take on the Canucks on Sunday. Vancouver blew a 2-0 lead to the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Saturday and lost 3-2. It was their 11th loss in 15 games. The Canucks have won four of their last eight games, but statistically, they look worse (at five-on-five) now than they did earlier in the season when they lost eight games in a row. The Bruins haven’t looked great over their last two games, specifically early (in the first period) and, as a result, I would like to think the team will start on time on Sunday.
Boston has the third-best even strength goal share (61 percent) and they rank sixth in expected goals (55 percent). The Canucks rank 19th with a 49 percent goal share, however, when looking at how the team has performed in front of each of their goaltenders, it paints a different picture. When backup Spencer Martin has been guarding the cage, the Canucks have owned roughly 58 percent of the goals, but when starter Thatcher Demko plays, their goal share is sitting around 38 percent. The 26-year-old has allowed approximately 10 goals above expected (that’s 10 goals more than an average goaltender would have allowed had they faced the same shots) and by my count, he’s only played one good game all season. I don’t like his chances of bucking that trend on Sunday, with a tired team in front of him.
The Bruins will be tired, too, but they hold such a big edge over the Canucks in every category that my NHL betting model still suggest they will win the game about 72.5 percent of the time. That converts to odds of around -265, so, while I don't love betting big favorites, I can justify doing it here. If you don't feel comfortable laying -220, you could opt to bet the Bruins to win in regulation at somewhere between -135 and -145, but those prices aren't widely available at this time. The regulation line should be closer to -160. I might've opted to go with that for my selection, but the moneyline is widely available at -220 or better and that's the bet I'll be tracking.
Bet: Boston Bruins -220
2.2 units to win 1 unit
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