NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 11/14

November 14, 2022 06:31 AM
Los Angeles is looking for their fifth win in a row Monday in Calgary, and my NHL betting model has identified the Kings as the sharp side.

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This is your guide to learn how to bet hockey. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date on my best bets from my NHL betting model.

NHL betting market report for Monday, November 14th

Wins: 27 Losses: 25 Units Won: +2.09 units ROI: +4.4 percent

Recap: Boston didn’t mess around on Sunday and beat Vancouver 5-2.

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

Monday: The NHL betting market report will be back in it's full form later this week but for now, I'm continuing the theme of focusing solely on the games that I am betting.

Monday's Bets: Los Angeles Kings +140 (see write up for bet amounts)

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

Los Angeles Kings (+140) at Calgary Flames (-160)

Calgary snapped a seven-game losing streak with a win over the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday, and they’ll try to win their second in a row against a Kings on Monday. Los Angeles has won four games in a row and seven of their last 10 overall. Coming into the season, I projected that Calgary would be one of the league’s top teams this season. There’s still time for that prediction to come true, but the Flames have owned just a 50 percent share of expected goals (five-on-five) through the first 14 games and their shooting and saving numbers are average. Meanwhile, the Kings are the sixth-best five-on-five team through the lens of expected goals, and they’ve been better than the Flames offensively. The Flames scored five goals in their season opener and haven’t hit that mark in a game since. They’ve scored three goals or less in 10 out of 14 games. The Kings have put up at least four in nine out of their 17 games.

Jacob Markstrom hasn’t been great this season, but he hasn’t been bad, and he still gives the Flames an edge in goal over a lot of teams in the league. Jonathan Quick had a bit of a rough start, but he’s been on a roll the last few weeks, saving the team approximately three goals above expected over his last seven games and the Kings defensive metrics are comparable to that of the Flames. I had the Kings pegged to be a playoff team this season, but I didn’t think they were on par with a team like Calgary. That assessment appears to have been wrong, at least to some extent, as the gap between the Kings and Flames doesn’t seem to be as expected. My NHL betting model prices the game at around -125 in favor of the Flames, assuming Quick and Markstrom are the starting goaltenders. Therefore, I can justify a one unit bet on the Kings at +140.

Notes: Kings' forward Alex Iafallo's status for Monday's game is questionable.

Bet: Los Angeles Kings Stake: 1 unit to win 1.4 units

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