Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.
All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. Follow me on Twitter.
Record: 114-111, -5.15 units, -2.2 percent ROI
Market Report Recap for Game 2
Val Nichushkin registered five shots on goal in Game 2 and easily went the 2.5 total at -160. There were no other recommended bets on Saturday.
Market Report for Game 3
Let’s look at Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final from a betting perspective.
Colorado Avalanche (-110) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-110)
In Game 1, the Lightning generated just 23 shots on goal. It was their lowest shot total in game yet in these playoffs. The expectation was that they would be better in Game 2, but they weren’t. The Avalanche played a complete game and held the Lightning to just 16 shots on goal. It sure looks like the market (myself included) undervalued the Avalanche heading into this series, but hindsight is notably cleverer than foresight. The Lightning look tired and beaten down, unable to compete with the younger, faster team from Colorado.
It’s easy to scoff at the results of the first two games as if you saw this beatdown coming all along, but let’s be honest. We all thought this would be a great series, between two great teams. So far, only one team has put on a show, and it’s been a wakeup call. Now, most bettors (including myself) are questioning if the Lightning can play better hockey going forward in the series. Maybe they’re just outmatched. Colorado certainly looks like a far superior team to the Lightning. According to Natural Stat Trick, The Avalanche own 68 percent of the shots, 69 percent of the high danger chances and 73 percent of the expected goals in the series so far during five-on-five play. The Lightning have never been outplayed this badly in the playoffs.
Handicapping Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final really comes down to how much you value home ice, and whether you think desperation is going to push the Bolts to be better. Before the series started, I would have thought the Lightning ought to be priced as a small favorite on home ice in Game 3, but confidence in my prior assessment of the series is low. However, it’s sort of a moot point, because I wouldn’t have bet the Lightning at a pick ‘em price anyway. Not to mention, all relevant information has been accounted for in the odds. My model suggests the game is appropriately priced as a coinflip, but my gut tells me the Avalanche will win the game more often than the Lightning. Of course, it would be foolish to count out Tampa Bay, and I don’t think anyone should care about my guesstimate. I didn’t get to where I am by following my gut. I’m going to re-evaluate how I approach the playoffs from a betting perspective but making wholesale changes on the fly is not my style. For Game 3, I’m once again betting Val Nichushkin to register over 2.5 shots on goal, but it’s a smaller bet this time around. However, a new player prop market at DraftKings Sportsbook caught my eye today. You can bet on whether a player will be a plus or a minus at the end of the game, and Cale Makar and Gabriel Landeskog are good bets to be a plus players. Makar and Landeskog have finished as plus players in 11 out of 16 playoff games as the Avalanche have outscored teams 43-21 when he’s been on the ice. He’s only finished with a minus in two games so far in these playoffs.
Player Prop Pick via DraftKings Sportsbook:
Val Nichushkin Over 2.5 Shots -165 (half size)
Cale Makar ‘Plus/Minus’ Over 0.5 + 130
Gabriel Landeskog ‘Plus/Minus’ Over 0.5 + 125
Bet Summary:
There are no recommended bets currently.
Player Prop Bets:
Val Nichushkin Over 2.5 Shots -165 (half size)
Cale Makar ‘Plus/Minus’ Over 0.5 + 130
Gabriel Landeskog ‘Plus/Minus’ Over 0.5 + 125
Record: 125-127, -12.50 units, -4.2 percent ROI