Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.
All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. Follow me on Twitter.
Record: 114-113, -7.20 units, -3.1 percent ROI
Market Report Recap for Game 4
Game 4 was the first game that did not go over the total in the Stanley Cup Final, unfortunately.
Market Report for Game 5
Let’s look at Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final from a betting perspective.
Tampa Bay Lightning (+ 155) at Colorado Avalanche (-175)
Game 4 was the most evenly matched game of the Stanley Cup Final so far, but the Lightning had to block 34 shots in order to close the gap. The Avalanche carried the play, especially in overtime, and they’ve got all the momentum heading into Game 5. It was a fast-paced game, and a goal was scored 46 seconds in, but overtime hero Nazem Kadri said that the ice was kind of garbage and that might have played a role in the game going under the total. The offense could come from anywhere in Game 5, as we’ve already seen 18 different players light the lamp in this series but look for Nathan MacKinnon to make an impact in the biggest game of his career. He has eight goals and seven assists in nine home playoff games and leads all players in the Stanley Cup Final with 42 shot attempts. It would be unwise to count the Lightning out of this series, but the market has trended toward the home team. Colorado opened around -160 but some shops have moved all the way to -190, implying that they have almost a 65 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup in Game 5.
Neither team is at 100 percent, but the Lightning are worse off in the injury department, especially now that Kadri is back in the Avalanche lineup. Brayden Point questionable after missing the last two games, and Erik Cernak was injured blocking a shot in Game 4. Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul have all been banged up in the Stanley Cup Final, but there are probably more injuries that we don’t know about. The Lightning are going to give everything they have on Friday, but Colorado has more firepower and they looked great on home ice earlier in the series. I wouldn’t recommend chasing steam on the home team, but admittedly, handicapping this game isn’t easy. Point is a great player, but he wasn’t effective in Game 1 or 2, and he clearly isn’t able to play up to his capabilities. That makes it hard to judge how much he’s worth to the betting line. The Lightning haven’t been in this position before, but neither have the Avalanche, and we should expect a battle between these two teams as the latter looks to close out the series.
Pick:
Over 6 Goals Even
Bet Summary:
Over 6 Goals Even
Player Prop Bets:
There are recommended player prop bets currently.
Record: 127-130, -15.3 units, -5.1 percent ROI