Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.
All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. Follow me on Twitter.
Record: 114-111, -5.15 units, -2.2 percent ROI
Market Report Recap for Game 3
I took a bath in Game 3, losing all three of my player prop bets.
Market Report for Game 4
Let’s look at Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final from a betting perspective.
Colorado Avalanche (-110) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-110)
Everything came up Lightning in Game 3, as the defending champs skated to a 6-2 victory to pull within one win of tying the series. It wasn’t a dominant performance, though, and while I do expect the Lightning to play better than they did in the first two games, I also anticipate that we’ll see a better version of the Avalanche in Game 4. Too many defensive breakdowns, and their big push (a 27-3 advantage in shot attempts in the third period) came too late. The game could’ve turned out different if the Avalanche did have their opening goal disallowed, but as I said, everything came up Lightning. Tampa Bay played well, but goaltending was the big difference, as Andrei Vasilevskiy played his best game of the series by far.
There are a lot of question marks heading into Game 4, though, and that makes it tough to handicap. Tampa Bay forward Brayden Point played in the first two games after missing a month’s worth of action, but he did not play in Game 3 and is not expected to suit up on Wednesday. Nikita Kucherov and Nick Paul both suffered injuries in Game 3, but it seems like both players will suit up in Game 4. It’s doubtful that either player is at 100 percent. Then, on the other side of the ice, Andrei Burakovsky’s status is still up in the air, and there’s a chance that we could see forward Nazem Kadri make his return to the Avalanche lineup. My outlook for the game could change a lot depending on who plays and who doesn’t.
For Game 4, I’m on over 6 goals. After three games, it’s tough to predict how this series will turn out in the end, but one thing that’s obvious is that these two teams are going to play at a very high pace. Darcy Kuemper is a beatable goaltender, and while Vasilevskiy can turn into a brick wall, the Avalanche have shown that they have the offensive chops to penetrate the Lightning’s defense and put pucks past him. The odds on a given game going over the total of six goals aren’t as attractive as they were earlier in the series, but I’m comfortable making the bet at -105, or even -110. According to my model, with Brayden Point likely out of the lineup, this game is a virtual coin flip.
Pick:
Over 6 Goals -105
Bet Summary:
Over 6 Goals -105
Player Prop Bets:
There are recommended player prop bets currently.
Record: 127-130, -15.3 units, -5.1 percent ROI