NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 6/15

June 15, 2022 05:52 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. Follow me on Twitter.

Record: 114-111, -5.15 units, -2.2 percent ROI

Market Report for Wednesday, June 15th

Let’s look at Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final from a betting perspective.

Tampa Bay Lightning (+ 140) at Colorado Avalanche (-160)

I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve been asked to put a price on a potential series between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Colorado Avalanche. Sometimes I would say that I would make Colorado a small favorite, or vice versa. Other times, I said the series any potential series between these two juggernauts should probably be a pick ‘em. However, now that it’s no longer a hypothetical question, it’s tough to put a price on it. My model estimated that the Avalanche would win the series close to 60 percent of the time, but that was assuming Brayden Point was done for the season. Now, it seems like there’s a good possibility that Point not only play in the series, but he could play in Denver this week. The Lightning have been able to eliminate three teams without Point, who led the team in playoff goals in 2020 and 2021, but it will be hard knock off Colorado without him. Of course, even if Point can’t play in Game 2, the Lightning might have the upper hand. Since 2012, teams off a sweep (like Colorado) are 9-8 in the following series. A big reason for that, it seems, is that those teams have lost Game 1 59 percent (7-10) of the time. This suggests that a team coming off a sweep is more likely to be rusty early in the series, and while it can be costly, the rust narrative should probably be thrown out the window once a team finds their footing.

I expect Colorado to throw everything they can at the Lightning in Game 1, but Tampa Bay is a great counter-punch team. Colorado is likely going to carry the play, but the Lightning know how to play without the puck, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is easily the best goaltender in the series. The Lightning don’t mind getting in the way of shots, either. Game 1 should teach us a bit about what to expect in this series, like whether Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn and Brandon Hagel will be matched up against Colorado’s top line at all in Game 1. I don’t think they will completely shut down Nathan Mackinnon and Cale Makar, but if they can have even a little bit of success in that department, it would go a long way toward helping the Lightning win their third Stanley Cup in a row, and it would have an impact on the way I handicap the series going forward. Will Nazem Kadri return to Colorado’s lineup, or is he done for the season? I don’t think Colorado’s bottom-six forward group is any better than the Lightning’s third and fourth lines, so this series (like so many others in these playoffs) will be decided by the superstars. Colorado has more star players on a good day, but the Lightning’s core hasn’t failed yet. Assuming Point plays in the series opener, my model estimates that the Lightning will win the game approximately 44 percent of the time. It’s not a big edge, but it’s big enough to justify a bet on the road team in Game 1.

Pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning + 140

Player Prop Pick via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Mikhail Sergachev Over 1.5 Blocked Shots + 105

Bet Summary:

Tampa Bay Lightning + 140

Player Prop Bets:

Mikhail Sergachev Over 1.5 Blocked Shots + 105

Record: 125-127, -14.55 units, -4.93 percent ROI

 

 

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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