Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.
Market Report for Tuesday, May 3rd
Washington picked up a huge win over the Panthers as + 205 underdogs on Tuesday, but unfortunately the Flames couldn’t cover the puck line, despite shutting out the Stars. Nonetheless, it was a profitable day.
Record: 111-96, + 5.90 units, 2.8 percent ROI
Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.
Market Report for Wednesday, May 4th
Four teams are looking to take a 2-0 series lead, while their opponents are hoping to even the score. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.
Boston Bruins (+ 100) at Carolina Hurricanes (-120)
ESPN’s Emily Kaplan suggests that it is unlikely Frederik Andersen will be ready for Game 2, and if that’s the case, the Bruins should be priced around -110. The Bruins were good, in a lot of ways, in Game 1. They generated 3.5 expected goals and kept the Hurricanes at bay with just 2.4 expected goals. Of course, the 5-1 score paints a different picture, but I don’t think it’s a very good indicator of what we should expect to see in future games. Boston will cash in on some of their chances, and if they get adequate goaltending, they will win some games in this series. I recommend betting on Boston at even money, but there is value in betting on Boston to win the series at + 170, too.
Boston Bruins (+ 100)
Boston Bruins Series + 170 (half size)
Tampa Bay Lightning (+ 115) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-140)
Toronto played great in Game 1, and they were deserving of the victory, and while I don’t expect the Lightning to be as bad in Game 2, it’s tough to get over seeing them play so poorly. Toronto owned 64 percent of the expected goals, and overall, they dominated the game. The game line has been trending toward the Maple Leafs, having opened at around -115, and I’m going to wait until I think it has settled before I decide whether I want to back the Lightning again or not. According to my model, there is value backing the dog at + 115, but there are mental hurdles to get over after watching the Maple Leafs control the game from start to finish.
St. Louis Blues (+ 110) at Minnesota Wild (-125)
St. Louis won Game 1 by a score of 4-0, but the game was a lot closer than that. Minnesota finished the game with a 55 percent share of the shot attempts, but the Blues owned almost 53 percent of the expected goals. In other words, the road team’s approach to the game was more about quality than it was quantity. Unfortunately, the betting market has smartened up, and the Blues’ moneyline odds are sitting at + 110, this time around. I bet on the Blues to win Game 1 at + 115, which was my cut off price, so I won’t be backing the Blues in Game 2 unless the game odds move in the home team’s direction.
Update: Now that the game line is + 115, I can justify a bet on the Blues. Shop around, though, because I was able to take + 120.
St. Louis Blues + 115
Los Angeles Kings (+ 165) at Edmonton Oilers (-200)
We saw the best of the Los Angeles Kings, and what can happen if the Oilers aren’t able to dictate the pace of play. The Kings are a well-structured team, and it was encouraging to see them have an offensive outburst, but I can’t ignore the fact that (based on the regular season) they are the lowest scoring team in the playoffs. Edmonton should win this game, but Mike Smith is going to have to stop being so unpredictable, which is likely easier said than done for the veteran goaltender. My model is in line with the betting market here, and I don’t see any sense in backing either side.
Boston Bruins + 100
Boston Bruins Series + 170
St. Louis Blues + 115
Player Prop Bets:
Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI
There are no recommended player prop bets currently.