NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 5/25

May 25, 2022 09:23 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Monday, May 24th

There were no recommended bets on Tuesday. Player prop bets went 1-0 as Johnny Gaudreau once again went over 3.5 shots on goal.

Record: 112-109, -5.4 units, -2.4 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, May 25th

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

St. Louis Blues (+ 200) at Colorado Avalanche (-240)

The Blues are on the brink of elimination after losing Game 4 of their second round series. Jordan Binnington is out for the rest of the series, and his replacement, Ville Husso, has allowed at least four goals in four straight games after earning a shutout win in Game 1 of the first round. The Blues have won just one game in the series despite scoring first in all four games, and the Avalanche are probably feeling confident that they can defeat the Blues in several ways. Colorado looks to be hitting their stride offensively again after struggling earlier in the series, and that’s bad news for Husso and the Blues. I expected a better effort from St. Louis in Game 4, but they played stupid, and won a stupid prize. Maybe they’ll be better in Game 5, but the Avalanche have learned how tough it is to put a team away in the playoffs, and I suspect that they’ll continue trending upward like they have been over the last two games. From a betting perspective, I’m still neutral on the game line. My model prices the Avalanche at around -245.

Conn Smythe Trophy Betting:

Nazem Kadri has the spotlight on him once again after being involved in the collision that injured the Blues’ starting goaltender. However, unlike a lot of the incidents from his past, I don’t believe Kadri did anything wrong. He was making a hockey play, and something unfortunate happened. If you’re Blues’ fan, you probably don’t agree with my view, and that’s fine. I don’t have a dog in the fight. I am a fan of Kadri, though, he showed a lot of mental toughness in Game 4 after it was made public that he had his family received racist threats on social media. Not only did he score a hat trick, but he kept his cool while his opponents took shots at him throughout the game. It’s hard to stand out on a team that has as much superstar talent as the Avalanche, but Kadri has. He’s tied for the team lead in goals (five) and he is only two points back of Cale Makar, who leads the team in points. He’ll have to keep pace with the likes of MacKinnon, Makar and Rantanen, and score some big goals (game winners seem to be important to voters), but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was being talked about as a Conn Smythe Trophy candidate should the Avalanche win the Stanley Cup. Makar (+ 450) and MacKinnon (+ 550) are the two most likely winners, but if Kadri continues to grab headlines and lead the team in goals, he could be in the mix as well. Kadri is 50/1 to win the MVP at DraftKings Sportsbook despite being just two points back of the player that’s currently priced as the favorite, which doesn’t make much sense.

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 119-119, -12 units, -4.29 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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