NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 5/18

May 18, 2022 08:56 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Tuesday, May 17th

There was no betting market report on Tuesday.

Record: 111-107, + -4.35 units, -1.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, May 18th

Two more second round matchups will get underway on Wednesday. Lets’ look at things from a betting perspective.

New York Rangers (+ 150) at Carolina Hurricanes (-170)

The Rangers were outplayed badly by the Penguins for most of their first round series, and they were even outscored on aggregate. Still, they found a way to advance to the second round and now they’ve got a date with the Carolina Hurricanes. New York has an edge in the crease, as Hurricanes’ starter Frederik Andersen is still sidelined with an injury, but Carolina is a better team overall, and that’s why they’re sizable favorites in Game 1, and the series. The Hurricanes are probably going to pepper Rangers’ goalie Igor Shesterkin as much as the Penguins did, and as far as team defense goes, they’re a stronger team than the Pittsburgh.

The Penguins were able to keep it close, even though they had Louis Domingue in goal for most of the series, because they played the percentages. They outshot the Rangers in five out of the seven games, and probably would have done so in every game had Sidney Crosby did not miss any time. The Hurricanes will likely get to the Rangers in the same way, and that’s why they’re likely going to win the series. Shesterkin will have to be a lot better than he was in his first playoff series if the Blueshirts want to advance past this round. My model prices the Hurricanes at around -150 in Game 1, so that means I don’t have any betting interest in this game currently.

Edmonton Oilers (+ 140) at Calgary Flames (-160)

It’s going to be tough for this series to live up to the hype. It’s been 31 years in the making and people across the hockey world have been dying to see the Oilers and Flames go head-to-head in the playoffs. The two teams split the regular season series, each winning two games at home. Calgary won the two most recent games (March 7th and March 26th) by a combined score of 12-6. The Oilers might be able to match the Flames on offense, but if Leon Draisaitl is hampered by a lower body injury, like he was in the latter part of the Oilers first round series, it’s going to be a lot tougher to do. Jacob Markstrom gives the Flames a big edge in the goaltending department over the Oilers and Mike Smith, and if they can get their offense going, they should win the series.

The Flames scored goals at a higher rate than the Oilers did in the regular season, and they didn’t allow as many goals as Edmonton, either. Both teams finished in the top-10 in expected goals (for and against) but the Flames finished second in that category, while the Oilers barely slid into the 10th spot. Calgary had the best shot attempt percentage in the NHL, and they should drive play in this series. According to my model, the Flames should be priced closer to -180. Maybe my model is underestimating the Oilers, and what they’re capable of, but I’m going to trust it and bet accordingly.

Pick:

Calgary Flames -160

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Calgary Flames -160

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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