NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 5/11

May 11, 2022 11:11 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Tuesday, May 10th

The Lightning looked like they were going to run the Maple Leafs out of their own building in Game 5, as they jumped out to an early 2-0 lead and held the Maple Leafs to just four shots on goal in the opening 20 minutes. Things fell apart after that, though, and it was another unfortunate result for yours truly. I’ve lost my last eight wagers. I haven’t been able to update the report as much as I would have liked, so I’ve missed adding some bets that I’ve made, but regardless, I’m hoping that things start to go my way sooner rather than later. I feel like I did a good job handicapping each series, but things haven’t lined up well for me on a game-by-game basis.

Record: 111-103, + -0.75 units, -0.3 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, May 11th

The Avalanche have already booked their ticket to the next round, and as a result, there are just three games on Wednesday. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 115) at New York Rangers (-135)

Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel have been lighting it up, but they’ve also taken some of New York’s best players almost completely out of this series. Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox have tried to stop Crosby, but they haven’t been able to do that, and they aren’t scoring, either. The three Rangers superstars have only produced two even strength goals in the series, and in Game 4, high danger shots were 20-1 in favor of the Penguins, according to hockey stats website Natural Stat Trick. The Rangers were gifted a first-round matchup against goaltender Louis Domingue, but they’ve failed to capitalize on the opportunity, and they have been embarrassed by the Penguins in the process. Igor Shesterkin is going to have to play like the Vezina Trophy favorite that he is, or the Rangers are going to have to find a way to contain Crosby’s line and get contributions from their top line. Pick any area of the game, and the Penguins have been the better team, but my model is apparently giving the Rangers the benefit of the doubt on home ice, as it estimates that they should be priced around -110.

Washington Capitals (+ 190) at Florida Panthers (-220)

Early goalie pulls had not been working out for teams in the playoffs, that is, until the Panthers tied Game 4 following head coach Andrew Brunette’s decision to pull Sergei Bobrovsky with three minutes remaining. It almost didn’t work out, as Washington’s Garnet Hathaway hit the side of the cage on a shot at the empty net, but the Panthers were finally able to do what they did so many times during the regular season, and that’s come from behind to win. It was the first one-goal game of the series, and overall, there have only been seven one-goal games in the playoffs so far. The average margin of victory is way up this year. It’s sitting at exactly three goals through the first 36 games, which is a full goal more than what we’ve seen over the last ten years. The Panthers may have finally gotten the spark that they needed, but the Capitals ought to feel good about where they’re at, even though they let an opportunity to go up 3-1 in the series slip through their fingers. There’s still no word on whether Tom Wilson will be in the lineup for Game 5, but I’m taking the dog anyway. I’m splitting my wager on the Capitals, though. One half on Washington to win the game straight up, and the other on the Capitals to cover the alternate puck line (-1.5) which is available at + 425 over at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Panthers will likely win the game, but given how the series has played out, my stance hasn't changed. The value is on the underdog.

Pick:

Washington Capitals + 190 (half size)

Washington Capitals Alternate Puck Line, -1.5 + 425 (half size)

Dallas Stars (+ 210) vs. Calgary Flames (-260)

The Flames finally broke through the wall that is Jake Oettinger in Game 4, putting three goals past him for the first time in the series. They added an empty net goal to win 4-1, but the team must feel like they’ve gotten the monkey off their back. The series shifts back to Calgary for what is now a best-of-three and while that should, in theory, benefit the Flames, they’re going to have to figure out a way to score more than they did in their first two playoff games at the Saddledome. Calgary only scored one goal in those two games and were shutout by Oettinger in Game 2. It does seem like they’ve finally figured out how to penetrate the Stars’ stifling defensive structure, though, and if that’s the case, it's going to be hard for Dallas to win another game in this series. I hope they don’t either, as one more loss will result in me losing my series spread bet. I need Calgary to get this done in six games, because if it goes seven, I lose.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Washington Capitals + 190 (half size)

Washington Capitals Alternate Puck Line, -1.5 + 425 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

 

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