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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 4/20

April 20, 2022 11:57 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Tuesday, April 19th

A late add on the Calgary Flames paid off on Monday, but a similar strategy didn’t work on Tuesday, as the Flames lost to the Nashville Predators in a shootout after erasing a two-goal deficit.

Record: 108-93, + 5.22 units, 2.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, April 20th

There are just four games scheduled for Wednesday.

Dallas Stars (+ 135) at Edmonton Oilers (-155)

This is a big game for both teams, but more so for the Dallas Stars, as they’re barely hanging onto a wild card and they’re coming off a big loss to the Canucks, who are just four points behind them. The Stars have a 48.6 percent goal share over their last 25 games, and there’s no indication that they should have fared better than that. The Oilers, meanwhile, have outscored their opponents 3.65 – 2.65 over their last 25 games, which translates to almost 58 precent of the goals. There isn’t a whole lot separating the two teams, but Edmonton’s offense, combined with the recent resurgence of Mike Smith, puts them in a much better spot to win Wednesday’s game. They dropped the first two meetings with the Stars, but those games were in Dallas and this time they’re on home ice. According to my model, the Oilers should be priced around -150. Smith has been great since the middle of March, but goaltending is always going to be an area of the Oilers’ game that I don’t have much confidence in.

Washington Capitals (+ 120) at Vegas Golden Knights (-140)

If the Vegas Golden Knights lose this game, their chances of making the playoffs will drop to somewhere between five and 10 percent, but by my estimation, the market has priced in any boost they’re going to get from having their backs against the wall. They haven’t been getting good goaltending from Robin Lehner, and while it isn’t confirmed that he’s going to start Tuesday’s game, I’m going to expect him to be back in the crease after his coach called him out for his play after the team’s 3-2 loss to the New Jersey Devils. Looking back, it’s even more frustrating that they defeated the Flames 7-1 when I bet against them, because it’s the only game they’ve won in their last 10 that wasn’t against a non-playoff team. I don’t think there’s much separating Vegas and Washington, and according to my model, the home team should be priced around -125. The Capitals are better on offense, and the Golden Knights are only slightly better without the puck. I’ll consider taking the dog if the game line continues to move toward the favorite, but I probably won’t feel great about it considering the circumstances.

Colorado Avalanche (-310) at Seattle Kraken (+ 255)

Forward Nazem Kadri is expected to be back in the Avalanche lineup on Wednesday, but captain Gabriel Landeskog still needs more time to recover. The Kraken are one of the worst teams in the NHL and they have a 36.8 percent win rate on home ice. The Avalanche had their nine-game win streak snapped by the Washington Capitals on Sunday, but it was only their third loss in 17 games, and it’s very likely that the team will pick up two points here. However, the Avalanche don’t have anything to play for, outside of finishing first overall, but I don’t think they’re all that concerned about winning the regular season. This is a tune-up game, and according to my model, there isn’t a great bet to be made here. Seattle’s moneyline odds have already come down from + 285 to + 255, so you’re not getting the best of it if you decide to take the dog at this point. I can see why some bettors opted to back the Kraken, but I have been neutral this whole time.

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