NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 3/9

March 9, 2022 10:16 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Tuesday, March 8th

I marked down the Rangers as a loser as soon as Alexandar Georgiev was announced as the starter, but it hurt to see the Lightning play so poorly. At least both bets were smaller than average.

Record:

87-75, + 2.97 units, 1.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, March 9th

There are just two games scheduled for Wednesday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Washington Capitals (+ 100) at Edmonton Oilers (-120)

Washington was down 0-2 midway through Tuesday’s game in Calgary, but the Capitals were able to battle back and defeat the Flames 5-4. Ilya Samsonov will almost certainly start for the Capitals on Wednesday after Vitek Vanecek picked up the win on Tuesday. The Oilers have lost six of eight games since their five-game win streak at the beginning of Jay Woodcroft’s time as head coach. They’re missing forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi, and defender Tyson Barrie was recently placed on injured reserve. Edmonton’s goaltending problems are well documented, but we knew there was a good chance Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen would be bad in 2021-22 before the season started. What’s surprising is how bad they’ve been on special teams. Only nine teams have scored power play goals at a lower rate than the Oilers since the beginning of December, and their penalty kill has allowed more short-handed goals than any other team during that stretch. The Capitals will be tired, but they’ve been good defensively this season and they seem to be picking up their offensive game. According to my model, each team has about a 50 percent chance of winning, depending on who is in goal for the Oilers.

Notes: Stuart Skinner could get a start on Wednesday if Mike Smith isn’t back, but I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for that to happen. Skinner seems to be the best goaltending option that the Oilers have currently. Evan Bouchard missed the last game due to an illness, but he was regarded as a game-time decision and I have him pencilled into the lineup.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 180) at Vancouver Canucks (-210)

The Canadiens have won seven of their last eight games, but they haven’t been doing it in convincing fashion. Montreal is missing several serviceable players, including Jeff Petry, David Savard, Jonathan Drouin, Christian Dvorak and Paul Byron, but many of them have been inching closer to a return and bettors should be mindful of the fact that Petry, Drouin, Dvorak and others were skating earlier this week. Still, I don’t believe the Canucks should be priced any worse than -180. Vancouver grades out as an average team by most metrics, and if Thatcher Demko is in goal, they’ll have a big edge over the competition. The Canucks have been hot themselves, and if the Canadiens don’t get any reinforcements, Vancouver should be priced at around -205.

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

 

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