NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 3/30

March 30, 2022 08:21 AM
USATSI_17302382

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Tuesday, March 29th

Tuesday was the worst day I had in a while, losing bets on the Bruins (-130) and the Penguins (-160).

Record:

99-85, + 6.10 units, 3.2 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, March 30th

There are just six games on Wednesday, and I have one small early bet.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

New York Rangers (-155) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 135)

New York picked up a 3-2 win in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, and now they’ll face the team the Penguins just defeated 11-2 on Wednesday. The Red Wings are arguably the worst team in the Eastern Conference right now, having lost 13 of their last 17 games, and the Rangers are almost certainly going to go with Alex Georgiev in goal since the team is probably not looking to run Igor Shesterkin into the ground before the playoffs. Some shops (like Circa) are hanging as low as -140, and I’m curious how low it’s going to go. Georgiev has posted a .896 save percentage and has cost the team approximately 5.4 goals above expected (according to Evolving Hockey) since the start of the season. The Red Wings are a bad hockey team, but the Rangers’ biggest strength has been Shesterkin’s play in the crease, and when you take that away, they’re not a very good hockey team either.

Notes: Rangers’ forward Ryan Strome was not in the lineup on Tuesday. He is regarded as day-to-day after leaving Sunday’s game with an injury.

Los Angeles Kings (+ 165) at Edmonton Oilers (-185)

There’s just two points separating the Kings and Oilers in the standings, but latter has a game in hand on the former. This is a big game, and both teams should be hungry for a win. Los Angeles is a better team than the Oilers in many ways and are especially good at supressing shots and scoring chances. The Kings can match the Oilers when it comes to generating shots and scoring chances, too, but they don’t have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and that’s a big reason why Edmonton is such a big favorite. Los Angeles and Edmonton rank 10th and 11th respectively in expected goals at even strength, and the Kings own a better share of shots and goals on the season. The road team has been dealing with a lot of injuries, and still is, but I’m comfortable taking the dog in this situation. It would be nice if Drew Doughty was healthy, but according to my model, the Oilers are overpriced. Mikko Koskinen will start in goal for the home team, but there’s no word on which goaltender the Kings are going to go with. I’m hoping it’s going to be Jonathan Quick, as he’s shown that he’s still capable of providing the team with above average goaltending, but since I don’t know for sure, I’m going to scale back the size of my wager.

Pick:

Los Angeles Kings + 165 (half size)

Vegas Golden Knights (-175) at Seattle Kraken (+ 155)

The Golden Knights currently find themselves on the outside of the playoffs looking in, which is a place that nobody thought they would be a couple of months ago. The Dallas stars leapfrogged them in the standings, and now, with three games in hand, they sit in a much better position than Vegas does. The Golden Knights are more likely to miss the playoffs than make them, and that’s a shame, because this team would’ve been fun to watch at full strength. Still, they have a chance, and they’re going to try to defy the odds once again. A win over the Kraken would be a step in the right direction, and that’s probably what will happen on Wednesday in Seattle, but my model doesn’t make Vegas as big of a favorite as the market does. Robin Lehner apparently suffered a setback while practicing on Tuesday, and Mark Stone is out indefinitely. Max Pacioretty and Reilly Smith are listed as day-to-day. There are a lot of question marks about the Vegas lineup.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Los Angeles Kings + 165 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: Keep an eye out for diminishing returns on teams that you were high on at the beginning of the season like the Colts. Know when to sell on these teams.

Follow The Money: QB play is down in the NFL, according to Michael Lombardi. Worth looking at more Unders until it changes.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Tim Murray: Florida -10 vs Mizzou

Dave Tuley: Texans +7 at Jaguars

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-10-03_at_7.42.33_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close