NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 3/23

March 23, 2022 08:04 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Tuesday, March 22nd

Pittsburgh easily covered the puck line against the Blue Jackets with a 5-1 win, but unfortunately the Flames collapsed and didn’t follow suit. Calgary had a 3-1 lead over San Jose in the second period, but the Sharks got within one, and then scored two goals in 30 seconds midway through the third to take the lead. A brutal way to lose a bet that seemed to be trending in the right direction from the beginning.

Record:

96-80, + 7.07 units, 3.9 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, March 23rd

There are just four games scheduled for Wednesday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

New Jersey Devils (+ 260) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-320)

The Devils fell into an early hole (2-0) in the first period of Tuesday’s game against New York Rangers, but they scored five goals in the second period and added two more in the third to win 7-4. Nico Daws was in goal for the Devils on Tuesday which means Jon Gillies will almost certainly get the start on Wednesday. The Maple Leafs have had three days off since their last game, a 6-3 loss to the Predators, and they should be able to dominate a weaker team that’s also tired. It’s unclear who will start for the Maple Leafs in goal, though. They’ve gone with rookie Erik Kallgren in the last three games, but Petr Mrazek be back between the pipes on Wednesday. Mrazek has a .886 save percentage after 17 games and, according to Evolving Hockey, he's cost the team more than a dozen goals above expected. The Maple Leafs have played the Devils twice so far this season and they won both games by a combined score of 13-5. The Devils have been a bottom-five team on defense all season long, but both teams rank in the bottom-10 in goals against per 60 minutes since Dec. 1st. This game could get out of hand in a hurry.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-220) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 180)

Columbus opened the scoring in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, but the Penguins scored five unanswered goals and won the game 5-1. Pittsburgh controlled 58 percent of the shot attempts and 63 percent of the expected goals, and if they carry that type of performance over to Wednesday’s game in Buffalo, they will dominate the Sabres, too. However, Tristan Jarry started on Tuesday, and Casey DeSmith will likely get the start on Wednesday and the Penguins are worse off with him in goal. Buffalo has won four of their last five games, and with DeSmith in goal, the Sabres have a better chance of pulling of an upset, but my model estimates that Pittsburgh will win the game approximately 71 percent of the time.

Notes: Craig Anderson will start in goal for the Sabres.

Vancouver Canucks (+ 220) at Colorado Avalanche (-260)

The Avalanche are a deeper team as a result of the trades that general manager Joe Sakic pulled off prior to the deadline, but with captain Gabriel Landeskog rumoured to be out for the remainder of the regular season, my model rates them lower than they were before his injury. The Canucks are kicking off a four-game road trip. They are still technically in the playoff race, but they have lost five of their last six games and it’s very unlikely that they’re going to make up the necessary ground in the standings. My model prices estimates that Colorado will win the game about 73 percent of the time if Darcy Kuemper is in goal.

Chicago Blackhawks (-110) at Anaheim Ducks (-110)

Of all the teams that were labelled as sellers heading into Monday’s trade deadline, the Anaheim Ducks are the only team that lived up to the billing. The Ducks sent Josh Manson to Colorado, then shipped Hampus Lindholm to Boston and they also moved Rickard Rakell to Pittsburgh. Ryan Getzlaf and Jakob Silfverberg are out with injuries, too, so the Ducks are down five key players. The Blackhawks also made a big deal on trade deadline day, sending goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to the Minnesota Wild. That leaves Kevin Lankinen as the No. 1 goaltender, which means the Blackhawks are likely going to lose more games down the stretch. According to my model, the Ducks should be priced around -105.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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